Engineering Professor
(EngProf6)
Hybrid Timing Model for Analyzing Stocks and Indices
Click Here to Link to ‘My Journey’
Check out my mailbag for a new posting.
On
Wednesday I introduced version 4.0 with a filter. I now strongly believe “This
is it”.
During
the last week I have developed a firm hold on the modeling work I am
conducting. The results you will see and which I will use on my journey are
looking great. In addition, I have now successfully adapted the model to an
hourly basis. This will make investing (on a short term basis) so much easier.
You should note that there are 3 modes for a move: 1) red – down, 2) green –
up, and 3) yellow – turbulence (for both up and down primary trends). Read the
comments for last Friday for more explanations.
If you are new to this site, be patient, scroll down a
couple of pages and you will find what the model is forecasting for the
following 15 issues:
DIA, SPY, QQQQ, OIH, SMH, IWM, OEX, EWJ and XLF {these are based on specific market
averages} and, AAPL, AKAM, ET, GOOG,
STX and WMT
There are 2
classes of investors I would like to reach, in particular. If you are involved
with options, you should
consider what I have to say. You are in the first category. If you trade on the
short term (a couple of
weeks on average), then you are in the other category of investor I am
interested in. I would like to hear the ideas and opinions from members of both
categories.
One feature of my analysis is that I have a count down to a
reversal for each entity. Thus, if we consider stock XYZ, my model tells you
the current trend direction of the stock. Moreover, it tells you how many days
remain before the current trend for XYZ reverses. This information can help you
plan upcoming moves.
My Comments on the Markets
My Comments after Friday
(October 13):
I have erased my previous daily comments because I believe
that I am entering a new time frame. The model has now been refined to the
point that I am happy – I am satisfied – I am confident. And, I’ve carried out
some testing of the model with data on an hourly basis. It looks great. The
testing is preliminary but the results are exciting. So with a daily and hourly
model, I am rapidly approaching the point when I will ‘officially’ begin my
quest to convert 5K into 1M.
With regards to
the model, it is necessary to point out that the results given in the tables is
not what occurs in real time. Think of the results in the tables as optimum. In
actual fact, about ½ of the moves will disappear. This does not mean that the
performance is worse. In fact, it can actually be an advantage to eliminate
some of the moves. I won’t go into details at this point but eventually it
should become clear.
Another point
about the model is that it now generates 3 states. Taking back a move (i.e.
confirmation) is gone. A stock can be in an up cycle (indicated as green). It
can be in a down cycle (indicated as red). Or it can go into turbulence mode
which is indicated as yellow. For example, let’s assume issue SPY is in a down
trend. And then the model signals turbulence. This means that the issue
continues in a down cycle until the turbulence dissipates. Naturally, it is
also possible the turbulence may become a reversal to the up side. During
stretches of turbulence, the stock will make attempts at going against the
primary trend. If these attempts have roots, then a reversal will be forthcoming.
If they are not, then the primary trend will persist.
One last point is
that I will now start analyzing the issues I will be investing in on an hourly
basis and will make comments based on hourly results on this web site, as
appropriate. This should refine my strategy. While this analysis is still
preliminary, I am confident that the hourly analysis will prove to be very
useful. Stay tuned.
My Comments after Wednesday (October 18):
You will note that today I placed DIA, SPY and QQQQ all in
up cycles with turbulence. Why am I doing this. Because these are the true
trading moves. The moves you find in the tables are not trading moves. They use
as much as 3 forward points to back date moves. This approach is great for
tabulating moves but it is difficult to completely align with the moves because
it is hard to pick the starting and end points in real time.
Fortunately, I have come up with a filter that reduces the
number of moves you see in the tables by a sizeable amount (as much as ¾ of the
moves disappear). Thus, the model determines the primary trend and then the
filter maintains that direction when secondary moves (i.e. turbulence) appear.
So, from this point on, we will be looking at version 4.0 with the filter.
For DIA, SPY and QQQQ I am leaving out the starting points
of the current moves because they all go back to late August. This fact is also
true for GOOG which started in an up cycle in early September. AKAM started on
its current up cycle in late August. And finally we have AAPL. Its up cycle
started in mid-July. Remember, these are the trading moves obtained with the
filter. The moves in the tables, on the other hand, are a tabulation of all the
moves without the filter in place.
I am excited by what I see and am ready to start my
journey. The target of Nov 1 stands. So stay tuned.
My Comments after Friday
(October 20):
I have added to this site a copy of my brokerage statement
showing how much I have in the account and my current positions. Click on ‘My
Journey’ to link to the page I am using to detail my trading as I try to
convert 5K to 1M by trading options.
You will note that today I currently hold call options on
SPY and QQQQ. I plan to hold them until late Tuesday when I plan to sell them
and go into credit put spreads (bullish strategy) for GOOG and STX. I will sell
the calls of SPY and QQQQ because they are too expensive in terms of time
premium.
For GOOG, I am looking at selling short the Nov 460 put and
buying the Nov 450 put. At this time, I can get about $4.30 credit. The maximum
loss is $10.00. The current intrinsic value of the spread is zero.
For STX, I am
looking at selling short the Nov $22.50 put and buying the Nov $20.00 put for a
credit of about 1 dollar. The maximum loss is $2.50 and the intrinsic value of
this spread is about 40 cents. I realize that after the close on Tuesday, STX
will announce its earnings. That is a risk – however, the model sees that the consensus
is positive.
Overall, the
markets are now in a zone of turbulence that will take us to the end of
October. The overall trend remains up but the turbulence is opposing this
trend.
One question some
may ask is: Why am I pointing to Tuesday afternoon to flip my positions. The
answer comes from the hourly model, which says that Tuesday afternoon is a good
time to buy STX and GOOG (on the short term basis). You should note that all 4
issues are positive (in up cycles) for the longer term.
Naturally, all
that I have stated about what I will do and when I will do it can change as
trading resumes on Monday. But, one must first plan and then adjust and react
to reality. That’s what I’m doing.
It’s been a long
road. I began publishing this page in March ’06. Much has happened since then.
At this time I feel I can do what I set out to do. Your comments are always
welcome.
My Comments after Monday
(October 23):
In my last
publication I introduced my trading account and my positions in the My Journey
link. Today’s up action in SPY and QQQQ made my positions increase by about
25%. I closed those positions today rather than wait until tomorrow. I then got
a credit put spread (bullish) on STX. You can see what I did on my brokerage
statement. Check it out.
The issues I am
currently analyzing on this page (there are 8 of them) are all in up cycles. At
this point, things are looking good. However, many of these moves started as
far back as July. So, sooner or later, we will start seeing the reversal on the
horizon. For now, it is still far off. Stay tuned.
Good luck to
all.
SPECIAL
SECTION (under construction)
(How To) Grow $5,000 into $1 Million, Quickly
See how my trading is taking
shape – click the link below. Send me your feedback.
Click Here to Link to ‘My
Journey’
Stay Tuned. You
will get the opportunity to follow me as I embark on ‘my journey’ to grow $5
thousand dollars into One Million Dollars – Quickly.
The starting date
was initially set for Oct. 1, 2006. However, given the revised version of the
model (3.5) which I am trying to implement for all 15 issues, a more realistic
starting point is Nov. 1. I will announce the starting date one week in
advance.
DIA Direction: UP Started on xx Days Remaining: xx
Starting
Price: xx Current Price: 120.86
Dow Industrials Fund (DIA) is in a primary UP
cycle. Note the yellow on the up direction. This means there is turbulence. The
primary trend is up but there is an opposing force that is trying to pull DIA
in the other direction. This turbulence will persist, based on current data,
until about the end of Oct.
CLICK HERE --- to view the results for DIA as generated by the model (version 4.0) for 2006
SPY Direction: UP Started on xx Days Remaining: xx
Starting
Price: xx Current Price: 137.47
S&P 500 Fund (SPY) is in a primary UP cycle.
Note the yellow on the up direction. This means there is turbulence. The
primary trend is up but there is an opposing force (like DIA). Stay tuned.
CLICK HERE --- to view the results for SPY as generated by the model (version 4.0) for 2006
QQQQ Direction:
UP Started on xx Days Remaining: xx
Starting
Price: xx Current Price:
42.43
NASDAQ 100 Fund (QQQQ) is in a primary UP cycle. Today’s
up move by QQQQ has dissipated the turbulence for the next 3 days. Let’s see
where QQQQ will go. Notice that I have removed the yellow because at this point
in time there is no turbulence. If it reappears, the yellow label will reappear.
If there is a reversal in direction, the labels will switch to red.
CLICK HERE --- to view the results for QQQQ as generated by the model (version 4.0) for 2006
OIH Stay Tuned.
SMH Stay
Tuned.
IWM Stay
Tuned.
OEX Direction: UP
Started on xx
Days Remaining: xx
Starting Price: xx
Current Price: 639.93
The S&P 100
Index (OEX) is in a primary UP cycle. Yesterday I wrote: “At this time OEX is
experiencing turbulence. If OEX moves up a bit (several points), the turbulence
will dissipate.” Today, OEX did that and has dissipated the turbulence for a
couple of days. The current up move that OEX is in started in mid July (like
AAPL). Naturally, this is the filtered trading move. The unfiltered moves (or
raw data) for OEX are compiled in the table found in the following link. You
will note that the model has been very accurate for OEX. The current move will
most likely result in the biggest loss for OEX this year. But that is the way
it is.
CLICK HERE --- to
view the results for OEX as generated by the model (version 4.0) for 2006
EWJ Stay Tuned.
XLF Stay Tuned.
AAPL Direction: UP Started on xx
Days Remaining: xx
Starting Price: xx
Current Price: 81.46
Apple Computer (AAPL) is in an UP cycle
according to version 4.0. You should note that the moves shown in the table are
the maximum number of moves. In real time, the number of moves will be reduced
by about ½ or more and the starting and ending points will be adjusted
accordingly by the filter I have developed.
CLICK HERE --- to view the results for AAPL as generated by the model (version 4.0) for 2006
AKAM Direction: UP Started on xx
Days Remaining: xx
Starting Price: xx Current
Price: 47.35
Akamai
Technologies (AKAM) is in a primary UP cycle according to version 4.0. AKAM has 14 more days in its current up
cycle. Earnings announcement is on
Thursday – should be interesting. Stay tuned.
CLICK HERE --- to
view the results for AKAM as generated by the model (version 4.0) for 2006
ET Stay
Tuned.
GOOG Direction: UP Started on xx
Days Remaining: xx
Starting Price: xx
Current Price: 480.78
Google (GOOG) is
in a primary UP cycle according to version 4.0. GOOG continues to do very well.
CLICK HERE --- to view the results for GOOG as generated by the model (version 4.0) for 2006
STX Direction: UP Started on Friday, October 13
Days Remaining: 8 (no
change)
Starting Price: 21.65 Current Price: 21.45 Loss:
0.20
Seagate
Technologies (STX) is in a primary UP cycle that started on Oct 13. According
to the model, STX still has 8 days remaining in the primary trend. At that
point, the filter comes into play and it will determine whether there is a
reversal or if it is only turbulence. Tomorrow, STX announces earnings. So,
stay tuned.
CLICK HERE --- to view the results for STX as generated by the model (version 4.0) for 2006
WMT Stay Tuned.
SPECIAL SECTION (under construction)
(How To) Grow Your
Wealth Quickly
and, after I complete my objective,
Anyone Can Make a Million Quickly
I have invested over the years but I’ve had
difficulty making a good return. In retrospect, I didn’t have the discipline or
a model to be ‘successful’. All this changed when I started to use a model of
price movements. It just so happens that I developed what I refer to as the
hybrid timing model which evaluates cyclic price movements in the financial
markets.
My past investment universe included stocks, options
and futures. Again, in retrospect, I could not succeed because I was not able
to get a handle on the time trends of the issues I was investing in. So about 7
years ago, I stopped my active investing strategy (except for a few buy and
hold stocks). During this time, I fiddled with mathematics to try to get a
handle on how short term moves occurred in the markets.
In early 2006 I came to the conclusion that the model
I had developed was of sufficient accuracy to be of value in the short term
investing arena. During the last 4 months I have been posting some of the real
time results from the model on this web site. I am very pleased with the
results. Recently, I started to invest (with real money) in some of the issues
I follow (in particular, the market barometers). I started with stocks (or
ETF’s) but I have now moved to options for my speculation funds.
I have set a target for myself. My objective is to
convert $5,000 into 1 million dollars in 2 years. Hence, the title of my work:
‘Grow Your Wealth Quickly’. My plan is to use options to carry this out. My
official starting point for this endeavor is Oct. 1, 2006 (revised to Nov.
1’06). I realize this is a lofty goal but I feel I am up to it. I will report
my progress on this site. It will be one heck of a show, in real time. You will
get to see with real money what can be accomplished with the model.
Based on what I have learned, I have concluded that
one needs to use options (or futures) to make money quickly (or to loose it
quickly). One problem with the simple buying of call and put options is that
this practice is a bit like buying lottery tickets. The odds are stacked against
the buyer. Investing in stocks is much safer but too slow for accumulating wealth
quickly. Thus, several conclusions I have made, regarding my speculative funds,
are:
1) I will not
invest in stocks,
2) I will
invest in options,
3) I will
focus on credit option spreads.
So what are
option spreads? Simply put, an option spread is a strategy (in its simplest
form) that involves 2 calls (or 2 puts). The investor buys 1 call and sells
short another call with a different strike price. For a credit spread, the
investor sells a more valuable option and buys a cheaper option for a net
credit to one’s account. This can be done with both calls and puts.
Let’s
consider the SPY ETF that mirrors the S&P500. I am writing this on Sunday,
July 30’06. Let’s consider the August 2006 contracts. Credit spreads can be
created with calls if you think the trend is down. Credit spreads for an up
market would be created with puts.
Consider
the following credit spread involving calls (down SPY trend):
Buy: August 129 SPY @ $1.10
Sell: August
127 SPY @ $2.35
The cash
SPY when these option prices were retrieved was $127.98.
In this
case you would be credited with $1.25 (less commissions). The maximum loss that
you can incur is $2.00. Thus, in initiating this spread, you would be required
to deposit $0.75 which would be coupled with the $1.25 credit for a total of
$2.00 (the maximum loss). The spread has an intrinsic value of $0.98. If by
expiration (in 3 weeks), the SPY has dropped to 127 (or lower), you pocket the
credit of $1.25 you received. If the SPY closes at expiration at 128, you get
to keep $0.25 of the $1.25 credit. If SPY closes at $129 (or higher), you give
back the $1.25 credit plus the $0.75 you deposited. The bottom line is that you
are risking $0.75 to have it become anywhere from zero to $2.00. If you are
good at identifying trends, you will be a winner.
Another
credit spread involving calls of SPY is:
Buy: August 130 SPY @ $0.70
Sell: August 128 SPY @ $1.65
This
spread would yield you a credit of $0.95. The intrinsic value of this spread is
zero. You would risk $1.05 to enter this spread. If the SPY remains unchanged
(or goes down) by expiration, you pocket the entire $0.95.
Why a
credit spread and not a debit spread. My simple answer at this point is because
of the eventuality that the market (SPY) reverses. Let’s assume the SPY has
just entered a down trend. You decide to sell the Aug 127 at $2.35 and buy the
Aug 129 at $1.10 for a credit of $1.25. The cash SPY is 128. Let’s further
assume you were right with the trend and 2 weeks later the SPY is at 127 (a
drop of 1). At that point in time, there may be an issue you will need to deal
with. Expiration may (for arguments sake) be 1 or 2 weeks away. You need to go
into a credit spread involving puts. So what does one do with the call spread.
With regards to the calls you can close the spread completely or you may buy
back the call you shorted (and hopefully you will be able to buy it with the
funds you received as credit). If you only buy the call you shorted, you would
be left holding the call you bought. If you are right about the reversal to the
up side, that call will increase in price. At the same time, you would
initialize a credit spread with puts.
A $1,000 investment if doubled ten times in a row would be
worth over 1 million dollars. Can it be done? Yes – maybe not 10 in a row, but…
What you need is to have a good handle on the trend. I plan to do it. This is
my Tour de France. Stay Tuned. Naturally, your comments are welcome.
To Be Continued….
MY MAILBAG
It is Oct 20’06 and I am
posting a message I received today.
Message #1:
Header: Ready for Nov 1st?
Time: October 20, 2006 9:25:33 AM
Text:
My Reply to Message #1:
Many thanks for
your message. I am sorry to hear about your losses. Options are very risky. I
stay away from stock options. I think there is less risk in the index options
and there is good fluidity. I also like spreads. I plan to do a bit of
everything. I am about to start ‘officially’. I want to start when the current
up move becomes a down move. You can see what I will be doing on this site. You
will get the idea. Remember start small – don’t get excited. There will be
plenty of opportunities. Mistakes are made when we rush into moves because we
think we will miss the boat. Miss one boat – take the next. So relax, pay
attention, don’t get excited, be humble and spread the risk. Don’t overextend
yourself. Assume that the move you are going to make will turn out to be a
disaster. What will you do if that is what happens? Always keep some cash to
keep the game going. Good luck.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Forecasting
the markets is like forecasting the weather. Our knowledge base (I am referring
to mankind) is such that the only reliable forecasts are short term. Long term
forecasts for the weather or the markets are simply beyond our reach at this
time.
Remember
last year, the forecasters got caught up with the unusual number of hurricanes
we were having. As a result their forecasts for 2006 were worrisome to say the
least. We were told there would be as many and more. They weren’t forecasting,
they were simply extrapolating. Now as we approach the 1 year anniversary of
Katrina, we haven’t had any hurricanes to speak of.
Yes
there is Ernesto on the horizon, but as I write this, he doesn’t know whether
he should be a tropical storm or a hurricane. Try forecasting what will happen
in the next 3 days. It’s not easy, even for the pros.
As I said,
long term forecasting is beyond man’s capability at this time. Long term
forecasting of the markets parallels that of forecasting the weather. It cannot
be done with any degree of accuracy. It boils down to ‘A Random Walk Down Wall
Street’. These are my personal views.
So what
about short term forecasting? Well that is a different story. We can all agree
that short term forecasting of the weather is a reality. It is within man’s
grasp. Five or even ten day forecasts are generally quite accurate.
What I do is short term forecasting of the markets (without any detail). The model tracks the cyclic, short term trends and tells us what to look for. It assigns no magnitudes (not yet anyway). Remember, money management is equally important as the forecasting component. If you are careless and lose all your worth on a wrong move, then being right 80% of the time will amount to nothing. You need to be WISE. Good luck to all.
Announcement:
The following is an introduction as to what I am planning for the
near future.
There are several reasons why I am publishing this web site. Two
of them are: 1) to discipline myself when it comes to investing, and 2) to find
a viable, winning strategy for investing in options. My unofficial name for
this work is (How To) Grow Your Wealth Quickly. I will be using this
heading more frequently in the future and it will be the title of a book I will
write on the subject.
At this point, I am working on the ‘how to’ part of the program. I
have already formulated a preliminary strategy which I am testing with my own
money. The strategy is focused on options and more specifically the combination
of buying credit spreads and the buying of straight calls and puts. I won’t say
any more at this time besides stating that 90% of a winning strategy is
centered on getting the direction of the move right. Given that the model can
do this about 80% of the time, I am finding that being successful trading
options is viable and is, indeed, quite profitable.
Soon, I will write more about my progress and my plans. Stay
tuned.
Do you want to see past issues of this page? Click the link below.
Past Postings
of This Page – Click Here
Questions, Comments, Suggestions or whatever else you may fancy
are welcome. I can be reached
at:
engprof6@hotmail.com
Please Note This Disclaimer: The above results are generated from a mathematical model. It provides some insight into what may be expected in the short term (2 to 4 week cycles). While reliability is of highest importance, life is such that the model is not always correct. Neither is past performance necessarily indicative of future performance. Stocks, markets, and options can change greatly in value in short time spans because of unpredictable events. The model cannot foresee such events. When they happen, the model’s performance will be poor and in some cases - wrong. The user is advised to be cautious and to try to couple the results for individual stocks to those for the market averages.
One
last point I wish to emphasize. The accuracy of the model is also dependent on
the entity that is analyzed. Some entities are more amenable to the type of
analysis the hybrid timing engine
performs. Others (especially those with elevated volatilities and/or irregular
trading volumes) may not match the anticipated performance. It is up to you to
satisfy yourself that the performance is adequate and to draw your own
conclusions.
[[ Find
Out About the Model – click ]]
[[ See Past Postings of This Page – Click
]]
Why Are There Events That Go AGAINST the Model? – Click Here
Interpretation of Signals - Click Here.
Find Out What Timing Did For AAPL
- Click Here
You may have noted that what I originally called a mathematical model is now called a hybrid timing engine. The term hybrid comes about because of the method of conducting the analyses. It combines several techniques into one package. The term engine refers to ‘computational’ engine – a terminology that is frequently used by researchers. Thus, the model will henceforth be referred to as the ‘hybrid timing engine’ or the ‘hybrid computation engine’.