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Engineering Professor (EngProf6)

        Hybrid Timing Model of Stocks and Indices

 

The following tabulation shows the results based on closing prices that the model generated for Akamai from the start of the year. 

 

 

                The Results for the Year 2006 From Version 4.0 (without the filter) of the

                                      Model for AKAM

 

Date

Action

Closing Price

Profit/Loss

Dec 20 ‘06

BUY

19.66

+ 3.14

Jan 13 ‘06

SELL

22.80

+ 0.96

Feb 1 ’06

BUY

21.84

+ 5.47

Feb 22 ‘06

SELL

27.31

+ 2.02

March 9 ‘06

BUY

25.29

+ 7.90

April 3 ‘06

SELL

33.19

+ 2.21

April 12 ‘06

BUY

30.98

+ 5.41

May 9 ‘06

SELL

36.39

+ 3.83

May 18 ‘06

BUY

32.56

- 1.06

May 22 ‘06

SELL

31.50

- 0.82

May 25 ‘06

BUY

32.32

- 0.65

May 26 ‘06

SELL

31.67

+ 0.97

May 30 ‘06

BUY

30.70

+ 0.59

May 31 ‘06

SELL

31.29

- 0.81

June 1 ‘06

BUY

32.10

- 0.76

June 2 ‘06

SELL

31.34

+ 1.08

June 5’06

BUY

30.26

- 0.16

June 7 ‘06

SELL

30.10

+ 2.59

June 13 ‘06

BUY

27.51

+ 6.26

June 27 ‘06

SELL

33.77

+ 1.38

July 17 ‘06

BUY

32.39

- 1.09

July 20 ‘06

SELL

31.30

+ 1.80

July 21 ‘06

BUY

29.50

+ 9.92

August 4 ‘06

SELL

39.42

+ 1.18

August 24 ‘06

BUY

38.24

+ 8.20

Sept 18 ‘06

SELL

46.44

+ 0.25

Oct 20 ‘06

BUY

46.19

+ 0.28

Nov 1 ‘06

SELL

46.47

+ 0.50

Nov 3 ‘06

BUY

45.97

+ 3.58

Nov 13 ‘06

SELL

49.55

- 0.82

Nov 20 ‘06

BUY

50.37

+ 0.08

Nov 24 ‘06

SELL

50.45

+ 1.58

Nov 30 ‘06

BUY

48.87

- 1.16

Dec 1 ‘06

SELL

47.71

- 1.44

Dec 4 ‘06

BUY

49.15

In progress

 

 

 

 

 

The net for the above moves is + $62.41 in a period of 11 months. There were 34 moves of which 24 were profitable.

 

Model 2.0 was fully implemented at the close of Friday, September 9, 2006.

I am now implementing Model 3.0. The above data was generated with version 3.0. This change took effect on Sept. 17’06.

 

On Oct 10’06 I started implementing version 4.0 of the model.

 

On Oct 22’06 I discovered a ‘small’ typo in an equation that generates the tabulated data for AKAM, AAPL, GOOG and DIA. The above table has the correction incorporated.

 

Questions, Comments, Suggestions or whatever else you may fancy 

are welcome. I can be reached at:

engprof6@hotmail.com

 

Please Note This Disclaimer:  The above results are generated from a mathematical model. It provides some insight into what may be expected in the short term (2 to 4 week cycles).  While reliability is of highest importance, life is such that the model is not always correct. Neither is past performance necessarily indicative of future performance. Stocks, markets, and options can change greatly in value in short time spans because of unpredictable events. The model cannot foresee such events. When they happen, the model’s performance will be poor and in some cases - wrong. The user is advised to be cautious and to try to couple the results for individual stocks to those for the market averages.