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          Engineering Professor (EngProf6)

                   Mathematical Model of Stocks and Indices

 

 

An Open Letter From EngProf6 to Some Fellow AKAM Posters

 

To: pantone101naturalblonde, repelsteentje2001, rwenutz2

 

Hi Pantone,

     You are terrific. I really do appreciate your positive comments. I know you are giving me the benefit of the doubt. I’ve actually written a couple of posts to you but I ended up loosing them because of Yahoo. At this point, I just want to say thanks and I hope you will end up reading this message posted on my web site. The time and effort you have put in to answer questions about me and the model are gratefully acknowledged.

 

     Incidentally, during the last few days I have had the misfortune to interact with a real piece of work on the AAPL finance.google discussion group. Several exchanges also occurred on the AKAM group. His user name is ‘apersuad’. There are at least 20 posts. If anyone wants to know why I am anonymous – check out what happened. If people knew who I am – I would be toast. There is an element in society that can’t stand to see someone succeed or out do them. This fellow thought he could razzle-dazzle the people on Google.

 

     When I showed up, he decided I was a joke. He ridiculed etc… He made Sircum look like a pussycat. Until I turned the table on him. The ironic thing (and most disturbing) is that he is an engineer and a graduate student who had the gall to call my work worthless, useless, and spam. I expect he will go undercover and attack me under another alias. Anyway, the saga continues.

 

 

Hello repelsteentje2001 and rwenutz2

     Listen, everything I have said in the past is truthful. I have not intentionally tried to alter the truth. You are using your imagination and saying I am Sotiris the Greek – should I be flattered. I guess it’s better than being called a jacka… Anyway, I have been on the boards for about 2 months. I am an engineering professor with a lot of experience. Where do I find the time to do the posting etc… Let’s just say, I don’t watch TV.

 

      Another point, I never said to take my comments and use them to invest. It’s irrelevant to me whether you do or not. We don’t know each other. You could say I bought 1 million shares of AKAM at $30 and then come back and say I sold the million shares at $33 etc… Given that we are both anonymous, such statements of past moves are somewhat irrelevant. What I am providing, if you follow what I’m posting, is a day-by-day accounting of the way I (i.e. the model) see the trading pattern of AKAM as unfolding, for instance. The choice to actually invest ‘real’ money based on my forecasts is totally up to you. I make nothing one way or another.

 

     I do not pretend to be anything other than who I am. Some people like you ask “Who Are You?”. My answer is the following:

“I am an engineering professor who is using hybrid dimensionless numbers to conduct, with a computation engine, signal processing of chronological stock market data”.

 

     My past record is irrelevant – you can’t verify it – you can’t impose circumstances – from my perspective it’s useless. Yet, of course, in developing a model you have to check the past to see if you are on the right track. Back testing is part of the process of developing a model. So obviously I’ve done it. I find it curious that some would actually think that I had not. As an engineer that would be irresponsible and how would you know if you have something to pursue. However, one must realize that future performance may not match past performance. In predicting the stock market – that is a fact of life. That is simply the way it is.

 

      What I want is for you to look at the future and decide for yourself what you think. And, most importantly for me, I want you to tell me (honestly) what you think. Whether or not you make money is irrelevant because we don’t know each other. However, I certainly would be pleased if you made money whether real or virtual based on my computed results.

 

      What are your comments regarding the forecasts I’ve made for AKAM in the past month? I started on the Yahoo board and said AKAM had entered a DOWN cycle. If you recall, that stretch of time was not positive for AKAM especially if you recall that before I started posting I had AKAM make a big gain during the earnings period. I recall some fellow posters were upset with me because of the DOWN forecast. They figured AKAM should go up forever.

 

      Eventually, that down cycle came to an end and I forecast that AKAM had entered an UP cycle based on the math model. Well, low and behold AKAM moved from the $26 range to the $32 range. I then said AKAM went into a DOWN cycle and AKAM moved down (even Beach sold some shares). AKAM remains in the DOWN cycle but is about to move back to UP on Tuesday, April 18’06.

 

      As an aside, yesterday I noticed message #116835 which I thought was terrific. Here is what it said:

  Re: replay of begining of march

by: stocksleuthhound      04/14/06 07:46 am

Msg: 116835 of 116886

 >>>it looks like the UP cycle for AKAM will be posted by Tuesday <<<

pickin a up cycle 2 days b4 earnings of this hot stock is not rocket science

 Posted as a reply to: Msg 116820 by engprof66

 

     On the surface, it means little, however take a good look. I posted AKAM will reverse to an UP cycle on Tuesday (in 2 days) and the individual says so what’s so special about that – of course it will go up. It’s 2 days before earnings (the dates are off – regardless) and this is a great company. The amazing thing is that the model doesn’t know AKAM nor about its earnings. All it knows is past price data (about 8 weeks worth). You know that simple post made my day. And the day will be even greater if AKAM makes a ‘nice’ up move during this upcoming cycle. Stay tuned.

 

     Now, let me put all this into perspective. I also analyze a number of other issues in diverse areas (13 are now on my web site). What’s my success – just as good as AKAM is what I answer.

 

     For the current market conditions I have a general statement that I haven’t stressed on my web site and it is that the markets are CONFUSED. This is important for you to note. We have the Dow and S&P500 going one way and the QQQQ going the other way. And then they reverse but they stay ‘out of step’. You can’t get big, extended moves one way or another with this scenario. I know that my record would be even better if the markets decided to make a concerted effort to move in one direction or another.

 

     I hope I’ve shed a ray of light on the character of EngProf6 (think of him as Spiderman - LOL). Do I like the attention? Depends. What I like is when people share their feelings with me – but they have to be honest. As you know, I have received a fair amount of negative attention, a fair amount of criticism, a fair amount of ridicule etc… Would you enjoy it? On the flip side, I have received a lot of positive feedback and the number of visitors to my web site has been terrific. Thanks to all those who are supporting my work.

 

     What do I see in the future for EngProf6? I don’t know. All I can say for now is that I plan to continue posting the results from my hybrid engine until the end of the year. I will then review my options and decide what I will do next year.

 

     As a parting comment, I would really like to set up a friendly challenge on my web site. You make a forecast – in a similar context to what I do. I have mine and I then post updates on a daily basis on my web site. I think that it would be fun, entertaining, informative and a useful way of gauging my performance.  After all, if many of you can do better, then I am wasting my time.

 

With the best of wishes,

EngProf6

 

 

 

 

                                My e-mail address is:     engprof6@hotmail.com