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 Engineering Professor (EngProf6)

        Hybrid Timing Model for Analyzing Stocks and Indices   ©

 

Last Updated:  April 20, 2007    

 

My Comments on my Trading for the Last ‘Few’ Days

 

This will be the last update of this page. My comments are posted on other pages.

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I have no comment. I made no trades. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

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I think I will skip making comments here. I made no trades – so that is it. I still have all my shorts. Let’s see where they go. They are all in the April options series. So I have to make trades in the next couple of days.

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Friday was a new day – but it was not any better. Things got worst for my shorts and now there are decisions to be made regarding my holdings. I am working on formulating the appropriate decisions. 

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Thursday was the opposite of Wednesday. It was a bad day for shorts. The gains of the previous day evaporated. Easy come – easy go. Friday will be a new day. 

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Wednesday was a good day. The model is looking at a reversal but not just yet. And given the string of up days when the model was in down mode, this drop was expected. It brought my options account up by $3K. Let’s see if I can hold on to this gain. 

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It is Tuesday evening. After looking at the model’s results I see a lot of reversals coming up soon. So stay tuned. There will be some trading soon.

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Monday started a new week. I did not do anything. A number of issues will reverse shortly. The market did little today but my options account did OK.

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Thursday was a write off for my short positions. I lost money but I think I will do OK. Stay tuned.

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Wednesday was quiet and not like Tuesday. Nothing much happened. I look forward to the next few days when the model is pointing down (both the overall trend and the intraday trend). Stay tuned.

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Tuesday was not quiet. It is a nasty day for me because I was short. That hurt but one must accept those days that go against you. Such is life. Tomorrow is a new day.

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Monday was a quiet day. I don’t plan on doing any trading for a while until there is a reversal by the model. At this point there is nothing visible for a number of days. Stay tuned.

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On Friday I did nothing. To recap this week, on Monday I closed out my long AAPL position and went short QQQQ, SPY and IWM. On Tuesday I did nothing. On Wednesday, I went short AAPL and GOOG. And on Thursday and Friday I did nothing. It was a good week for my accounts. I went back and look at what they were last Friday and this Friday and found.

Options account:   Friday, March 23:  $22,684      Friday, March 30:  $25,905       Gain: $3,221

Futures account:   Friday, March 23:    $7,673      Friday, March 30:    $9,134       Gain: $1,461

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As I stated yesterday, this morning (Wed) I went short AAPL and GOOG with credit call spreads. This is typically my vehicle of choice. 

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As I write this it is Tuesday evening. On Monday I went short QQQQ, SPY and IWM. And I closed out my long AAPL position. I also went short on Monday at the close the SPX futures.

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Today, I put in an order to short AKAM (a credit call spread) but it was not filled. So I did nothing. Next week will be interesting. I think it will be exciting. So, stay tuned.

The comments I made yesterday about the trading of futures with a modified model – I scraped that. Forget it – it won’t happen. The status quo prevails. The futures will be traded like the options.

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Today I decided that I would ‘play’ the S&P and the Nasdaq futures a bit different than I do the options. Given that it is so much easier to get in and out, I will use a slightly modified version of the model. You may note that sometimes I will be ‘out of phase’ with my futures when compared to my main model. I am going to give this approach a try. If it works out, it will be awesome.

Today, I closed out my long S&P futures contact. I will now wait for the main model to issue a sell (short). It will probably happen next Wednesday. So, stay tuned.

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Monday the market was up. Tuesday it was up and Wednesday well that was great. Yesterday I talked about a ‘storm’. Today’s action has pushed it back. We are now looking at the Tuesday/Wednesday window. That is fine with me. Picking the right time to go short will be terrific if successful. The higher things go, the better it will be and in the meantime there is money to be made on the up side. So, stay tuned.

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Tuesday I watched the market go up a fair amount like I did on Monday. I was long the S&P futures and AAPL so that was good. Now I am focusing on an upcoming storm. Like I said yesterday, I am not going long anything else. Stay tuned.

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Monday we watched the market go up a fair amount. I was long the S&P futures and AAPL so that was good. Now I am focusing on an upcoming storm. I am not going long anything else. Stay tuned.

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On Friday, I made my first options trade in about 10 days. I went long AAPL as I had said I would. I got bullish option spreads. One is a credit spread and thus is based on puts. The other is a debit spread (meaning I paid up front) and it is based on calls. Let’s see what the markets will bring us.

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It is Thursday night – I have little to report. I made no trades. My futures account needs some work but I am confident. I will bring it up and get back in line with my objective. I may be down but I am certainly not out. I received several guesses about LATD and what it may mean. One guess was something like ‘leave at the door’. It is interesting but not quite what I had in mind. Any more guesses?

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Guess what. I am going to continue the way I was (5 issues). I am not dropping AAPL, GOOG or AKAM. I am not dropping options. I need more time to reflect and to adjust. I took quite a hit in the futures account on Tuesday with the drop. I had 2 contracts. And then with the drop I got a ‘margin call’. Ouch. So I liquidated one contact – obviously at a substantial loss. Such is life. I kept one contract and today (Wednesday) it did well. My account is back around $5.5K – not good given it had peaked at about $8K. But, you need to lose to learn. And that is what I did. The model did NOT see the Tuesday drop – it was on the up side and it still is. That will happen and that is when money management is important. Meanwhile, I have done nothing with the options account. But I will shortly. I have calmed down. I think to some extent the jokers on the boards got me ‘down’ and I lost focus. Well, I am re-energized. I will adopt a new line when I get into a discussion – ‘LATD’. Try guessing what it means. I will let you know in a couple of days.

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