Engineering Professor (EngProf6)
Hybrid Timing Model for Analyzing
Stocks and Indices (HTM)
©
Last Updated: Monday, May 25’09 at 5:15 pm
(ET)
I need to recharge my batteries. I am working on the S&P
futures and forex trading (EURO-USD pair). I will be
back by the end of the week. Stay tuned.
On-Line Graphics Updated Throughout the Day: Instructions (updated April 4’09 click)
Monday, May 18’09:
SPX: 2:15 pm
It
is Monday afternoon. The market today is up sharply. I have been busy with a
number of things – one of which is to analyze on a 24 hour basis. There are several
exciting developments that some day I will share with you. But for now bear
with me. I have updated the graphic as of 2 pm Monday afternoon. We are in an
up trend but beware the red in the upper row (Monday afternoon). We may get a
bit of a sell off in the late afternoon. As I mentioned previously, I am now
looking at the S&P 500 (futures) and the Euro-USDollar
foreign exchange. Anyway, good luck to all.
Tuesday, May 12’09:
SPX: 6:00 pm
The
overall trend (the bottom row) was red on Monday and a good part of Tuesday.
And then at 2 pm it turned green. The green carries into Wednesday and a part
of Thursday. You will have noticed the yellow boxes. These represent indecision
on the part of the model. I will show them for the sake of completeness.
On
another note, I am working on converting the SPX to the futures value and
tracking it throughout the day (almost the entire 24 hours – about 22 hours to
be precise). So stay tuned.
Sunday, May 10’09:
SPX: 11:00 pm
It
has been a few days. I apologise for the lapse on my part. Without going into
details, I had little choice. As to the SPX you can see from the graphic what
has happened and what the model sees for Monday. Now keep in mind that as data
comes in adjustments are made – so nothing is set in stone. Good luck to all.
Tuesday, May 5’09:
SPX: 11:15 pm
We
are in a down trend that started on Tuesday morning. The red (bottom row)
extends for Wednesday and Thursday. Looks like we are
correcting for the next couple of days. Stay tuned. And remember
Twitter. I post when I can during the day as warranted. Good luck.
Monday, May 4’09:
SPX: 11:30 pm
Monday
was a terrific day. We had the overall trend as green for Monday. But now for
Tuesday the overall trend as given by the bottom row will become red at 10 am
(or if you like at the open if the market is weak). That’s why the arrow and
label are red. Today I Twitter’ed at lunch time that
the reversal would occur around the close on Mon and basically that is what we
are seeing. Good luck.
Sunday, May 3’09:
SPX: 1:00 pm
For
Monday we have a divergence once again. Let’s review what happened on Friday.
The half hour model shows that the trend was green from 11 am to 2:30 pm. Meanwhile
the lower row had red until 2 pm when it became green. What we can conclude is
that there is indecision in the market at this time. But, you know and I know
that things will get resolved. For example, Tuesday has red throughout but it
is too early to assume that the red will hold. So stay tuned for the update.
Thursday, April 30’09:
SPX: 9:00 pm
I
was ill (and am still a bit under). That’s why I did not post yesterday. This
flu talk has got to me. Anyway let’s get back to the market. Look at Thursday
on the above graphic – you see that there was green this morning (until lunch
time) and then we went to red. The red continues across Friday. So at this
point, Friday does not look good. Remember I post on Twitter when I can. My
name is engprof6. This morning I posted when the market was up 100 points that
we would go back to red at lunch time. And we did. Good luck to all.
Tuesday, April 28’09:
SPX: 11:00 pm
The
SPX has reversed to the up side. You should also note that the upper row now
has a fair amount of green. This should be good for the market. Stay tuned. I
will update on Twitter. My name is engprof6.
Monday, April 27’09:
SPX: 10:10 pm
The
graphic is shifted. As I said before we have divergence. The upper row is green
while the lower row is red for Tues. And then on Wed we have red on top and
green on the lower row. What a ‘mess’. I
will not even guess as to what will happen on Tuesday. Good luck. And don’t
forget to sign up on Twitter. My name is engprof6.
SPX: 6:00 pm
We
have a divergence. The lower row (the ‘longer’ term trend) is red while the
upper row is green. It is a bit difficult to interpret. But here goes. The
market will be pulled in both directions with the result that ‘little’ will
happen in the end. On the short term model, the market is being pulled up. If
the green in the upper row persists on Tuesday, then Tues will be an up day. If
it does not then Tues will be down. Right now it is a toss up. Later this
evening I will shift the graphic to make Wed visible. Stay tuned.
Sunday, April 26’09:
SPX: 12:30 pm
The
graphic is shifted. You can see on the bottom row that the green is now giving
way to red. So we now have Monday and Tuesday as red. On the upper row we have
a pocket of green that at this time straddles the end of Monday until early
Tuesday – but this is tentative – of course. The bottom line is that the gains
from Friday’s rally will be given back early this week. Come back soon and good
luck.
Friday, April 24’09:
SPX: 10:40 pm
Here
is a snap shot of how things looked at the close on Friday. I have put the
label and arrow as red because they are basically there. The upper row is red
and the lower row is about to become red. Later I will shift the graphics. Will
posted the shifted graphic on Sunday. Stay tuned.
Thursday, April 23’09:
SPX: 10:30 pm
This
is the only post today. For those on Twitter you may have read that there was a
buying opportunity today at lunch. Now for Friday we have s selling ‘opportunity’
at lunch time. And this should carry into Monday. So, enjoy and good luck. And
don’t forget to sign up on Twitter and follow my postings there.
Wednesday,
April 22’09:
SPX: 11:00 pm
Take
a good look at the graphic. For Thursday we have the bottom row as red. In
addition, we have some red on the upper row. So the down trend of Wednesday
will continue into Thursday. But as Thurs draws to a close we will have a
reversal to the up side. I will post when it happens on Twitter. So stay tuned.
SPX: 9:15 pm
Today
played out pretty much according to what the model had seen last night. We were
up in the morning and then we went down in the late afternoon. The overall
trend is now down. But, when I shift the graphics there will be green on the
bottom row. So the up and down characteristic of the market will persist. Stay
tuned – later I will shift the graphic.
Tuesday, April 21’09:
SPX: 9:45 pm
Look
at all that red that’s coming our way – just kidding. But there is a fair amount.
The market is oscillating. Monday was down (big time) then Tuesday was up and
then … It looks like down for Wed and Thurs. Stay tuned. And remember to sign
up on Twitter. I plan to use it more frequently. Good luck and come back soon.
SPX: 7:25 pm
Monday’s
drop was a ‘one day wonder’. That’s what I wrote. Now we are looking at
Tuesday’s and guess what… This up trend will be short lived. A reversal to the
down side will likely occur Wednesday before lunch. This will be interesting.
Remember I am on Twitter as engprof6. Stay tuned. Later I will shift the
graphics.
Monday, April 20’09:
SPX: 9:15 pm
Don’t
despair. It looks like today’s large 300 point drop was a ‘one day wonder’. If
you look at the graphic for SPX above you see that there was red in the bottom
row for Monday but then on Tuesday we will go back to green. That does not mean
that green = going up but rather it means that the trend is up. You will note
that the upper row has red. This is an embedded trend in the overall trend. Remember, I post on Twitter (name of
engprof6) with updates. Good luck.
SPX: 6:30 pm
As
we go into Tuesday we have SPX pointing down until noon. However, the upper row
turned green (tentatively, of course) at the close on Monday. So it looks like
the SPX will reverse to the upside on Tuesday morning. The actual time depends
on what the SPX does. Remember, the projections are based on a ‘flat’
market. Later on this evening I will
shift the above graphic. Stay tuned and good luck.
Sunday, April 19’09:
SPX: 10:00 am
I
am sorry that I could not update the last few days. I was called away
unexpectedly. I was back on Friday and am now back to ‘modeling’. In fact, all
things considered, I am excited about the prospects. I have taken the opportunity
to make a small change to the lower row of the graphics. I have gone from 3
points to four points. So the times are now: 10am, noon, 2pm and the close.
This is a more ‘reasonable’ configuration. For now until I get a bit more time
I am showing only the S&P 500. But I plan to bring back the other 3 issues
in the coming days. As to the market, you can see on the bottom row that the
green started on Wednesday afternoon and it stretched to the close on Friday.
However, Monday and Tuesday are now showing as red. Stay tuned and come back
soon.
Tuesday, April 14’09:
NDX: 10:30 pm SPX: 10:30 pm AAPL: 10:30 pm GLD:
10:30 pm
You
can read the previous blog to see where we are going. I want to focus on NDX at
this time. As it stands we have NDX becoming green at 10:30 am (lower row).
That would signal a reversal to the up side. Meanwhile SPX is going red until
the end of the day. But let’s take a closer look at NDX. Today NDX closed at
1322. However, if NDX is lower than 1319 at 10:30 am then the reversal gets
pushed to the close on Wed. This would align it with SPX – and I expect them to
be re-aligned. So keep your eyes open and good luck.
NDX: 9:00 pm SPX: 9:00 pm AAPL: 9:00 pm
GLD: 9:00 pm
As
we closed on Tuesday we had all 4 issues pointing down. You can see what
happened today by looking at the upper row (half hour model). For example we
had NDX and SPX as red from the start today until 2 pm and then they became
green. This is an internal cycle in the overall larger cycle that is described
by the lower row which was red. If you look at a chart of the market you find
that the market went down until 2 pm. The rest of the day was a wash – with
some up and then a minor selloff near the close. But the overall trend was
down. My focus is on the bottom row. I simply use the upper row to fine tune
the timing of my trade. Later this evening I will present the shifted graphics.
Stay tuned.
Monday, April 13’09:
NDX: 11:00 pm SPX: 11:00 pm AAPL: 11:00 pm GLD: 11:00 pm
I
have shifted the graphics. The down trend persists except for GLD. Stay tuned
and don’t forget to get on to Twitter. I try to post on that site whenever I
can – especially when there is a change in the overall trend (bottom row). It
takes 2 minutes. Good luck.
NDX: 9:40 pm SPX: 9:40 pm AAPL: 9:40 pm
GLD: 9:40 pm
The
NDX, SPX and AAPL are in down trends as evidenced by the red on the lower row.
The upper row gives you an idea of what kind of volatility we may experience.
Later this evening I will shift the graphics. Stay tuned.
Sunday, April 12’09:
NDX: 11:00 am SPX:
11:00 am AAPL: 11:00 am GLD: 11:00 am
There
is red on the horizon. Based on what I can see at this time, the coming week
will trend to the down side. Naturally, we should take things one day at a
time. But it is instructive to try to guess what will happen. On a personal
note, I focus on the next day. And don’t forget, I am using Twitter during the
day to update the graphics. Sign up. It’s free, anonymous and very simple ( a couple of minutes of time). Best to all.
Saturday, April 11’09:
NDX: 9:00 pm SPX:
9:00 pm AAPL: 9:00 pm
GLD: 9:00 pm
Thursday
was green for NDX, SPX and AAPL. It was red for GLD. As we now focus on Monday
(Friday was a holiday in the
Wednesday,
April 8’09:
NDX: 9:20 pm SPX:
9:20 pm AAPL: 9:20 pm
GLD: 9:20 pm
As
we look to Thursday, we see that both NDX and SPX are green. We can see the
volatility because of the many oscillations. Thursday is looking to start as
green but then there is red in the afternoon for both NDX and SPX. And this red
then carries into Monday. So it looks like this up move which started Wed
morning will be short lived. Meanwhile, AAPL is negative. I suspect we will see
some decline in AAPL given the extent of the red. And finally, gold reversed to
the down side at the close on Wed but may again reverse at the close on
Thursday. Stay tuned and good luck.
NDX: 6:00 pm SPX:
6:00 pm AAPL: 6:00 pm
GLD: 6:00 pm
Wednesday
was an unstable day. By the end we had NDX and SPX pointing up. However, I can
see in the data that there is another reversal coming. When I shift the above
graphics – by 2 days, you will see what I mean. I will do so later on this
evening. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, April 7’09:
NDX: 9:30 pm SPX:
9:30 pm AAPL: 9:30 pm
GLD: 9:30 pm
At
the close on Tuesday we have NDX, SPX and AAPL all pointing down (for the next
few days). You can also see from the upper row what happened during the day.
For instance, the model had red until noon and then the slices became red until
the last one half hour slice which was red. No in reality the afternoon was not
up but neither was it down. In contrast, AAPL was mostly red and NDX had more
red than SPX. So the techs were a bit weaker today. Nonetheless, the more
important row is the bottom row and it says that the overall trend is down. I
may not be able to shift the graphics this evening – I will try but.
Regardless, enjoy. Good luck.
Sign
up on Twitter and get more up dates. It takes 2 minutes. My user name is
‘engprof6’.
Monday, April 6’09:
NDX: 10:00 pm SPX:
10:00 pm AAPL: 10:00 pm GLD:
10:00 pm
Look
at the bottom row of NDX, SPX and AAPL. You see red from ‘mid-day’ Tuesday. We
have entered (or are entering) some kind of reversal to the down side.
Meanwhile GLD is looking to reverse to the up side. I will not speculate on the
length. Let’s take it one day at a time. Remember, I do post on Twitter during
the day when warranted and when I have the opportunity. My user name is
‘engprof6’. Good luck and stay tuned.
As
a final point, I would like to point out that the one (or two for SPX) green
slices at the start of Tuesday are there assuming the market is flat on Tuesday
morning. If however, the market is down a bit (2 points for the NDX) then those
green slices will become red slices. The bottom line is that the down trend is
in progress until further notice. And because of that I have changed the arrows
and labels to red.
NDX: 6:10 pm SPX:
6:10 pm AAPL: 6:10 pm GLD:
6:10 pm
The
3 issues had become red this morning and then they reversed late this
afternoon. However, the red will resume on Tuesday morning (from this
standpoint). Look at the graphics and you see green in the upper row for Monday
afternoon and Tuesday morning. After that the upper row becomes red again.
Meanwhile the bottom row has less green. So the overall trend remains red (once
we get by Tuesday morning). Good luck. Later on this evening I will shift the
graphics so that Wednesday will become visible.
NDX: 11:15 am SPX:
11:15 am AAPL: 11:15 am GLD: 11:15 am
I
have updated the graphics as of the 11 am data. We now have all 4 issues
pointing down. On a short term basis (the upper row of each graphic) we have
some green (call it relief) showing up during the early afternoon for SPX and
for the afternoon for NDX. You be the judge as trading evolves. I will try to
post some updates on Twitter. My name is ‘engprof6’. Yesterday I forgot the
‘6’. Good luck.
Sunday, April 5’09:
NDX: 7:35 pm SPX:
7:35 pm AAPL: 7:35 pm GLD: 7:35 pm
Let
me start off by apologizing for not updating this page the last couple of days.
Let me also apologize for switching the graphics last week to the 1 point daily
model. That was a ‘mistake’. I will be honest – I got carried away. I wanted to
see more stability but the fact is, the market
dictates the stability level. In addition, there was one reader – only one -
who pointed out that he preferred what I was doing before. Well, I rethought
things out and have gone ‘full circle’.
What
you see above are the results from 2 models. One model is based on 3 time
stamps in a day (10:30 am, 1:30 pm and 4:00 pm). The other model is based on
one-half hour time stamps starting at 10:00 am and ending at 4:00 pm for a
total of 13 points. I’ve been running these models all along and have posted
them in the past. I am now going back to them.
When
you look at a specific graphic, you see the bottom row which contains 3 days in
the past and 2 into the future (in the evening posts). The 3 past days show
what happened. The bottom row shows the longer term trend while the upper row
shows the shorter trend. It is, in effect, the embedding of one trend into
another.
The
upper row gives one the ability to trade intraday while the bottom row is more
suitable to interday. The arrow at the center of the
graphic indicates the ‘overall trend’.
So,
for the week we are entering, we have red visible on Monday for NDX and AAPL.
The SPX has red showing on Tuesday. Meanwhile, gold (GLD) is looking to behave
in the opposite direction. Remember, however, as new actual data comes in, the
colors we see in the ‘future’ window may (and will, often) change. So stay
tuned. Also, I would like to remind you that I will be using Twitter more and
more often during the day to briefly summarize changes that are taking place.
My user name is ‘engprof6’ on Twitter.
Good
luck.
Tuesday, March 31’09:
NDX: 7:10 pm SPX:
7:10 pm AAPL: 7:10 pm
GLD:
7:10 pm
I
hope you are ‘enjoying’ the ‘long’ term model. Several have asked if I still
follow the other models. The answer is yes. In fact, I continue to follow the
half hour model and the 5 minute model in addition to the daily model.
Today
looked like it would be a strong up day but in fact the advance fizzled out in
the last hour. The model continues to have NDX, SPX and AAPL pointing down for
at least another week. Remember – this is not fixed in stone. Each day the
forecast is revised. But for now the future looks red. With regards to GLD, it
too is pointing down (excluding Tues and Wed). Let’s give the model a bit of
time to prove itself. Good luck. Your comments are always appreciated. And
don’t forget Twitter.
Monday, March 30’09:
NDX: 10:30 pm SPX:
10:30 pm AAPL: 10:30 pm GLD: 10:30 pm
Your
comments have led me to make a change – a significant change. I am now showing
the results from the 1 point daily model for the 4 issues. What you see are 10
slices (i.e. days) in the past and 5 slices in the future segment of the
graphic. The color for a given day originates from the previous day. For
example, if you look at SPX you see that the slice of March 27 is red. This
implies that at the close on March 26 the model reversed to the down side and
thus the next day’s slice appeared as red.
So
what does the model say at this time? All 4 issues including gold are pointing
down. The future slices are all red. The past was mostly green but the last
couple of trading days were red for SPX, AAPL and GLD. NDX has had only one red
day as of the close on Monday. It is interesting to see gold aligned with the
broad market – pointing down. My guess is we are going into a sell off that
will pull everything down. But, let’s not get excited yet – let’s take it one
day at a time.
As
a final point, I would like to encourage you to sign up with Twitter (dot com).
It only takes 2 minutes. Given the new format I am exploring (for now anyway),
it is easier to post in Twitter than to update the web site. So sign up and
stay tuned. And good luck.
Sunday, March 29’09:
NDX: 4:00 pm SPX:
4:00 pm (long term SPX) AAPL:
4:00 pm GLD:
4:00 pm
Because
of a suggestion from a reader, I have expanded what appears for the S&P 500
(SPX). Because my analyses are short term, it is hard for many to decipher what
is going on. Moreover, most are interested in the longer term trend. As a
result, I have started this pilot project (only for the SPX) to show the
results from the longer term model. What you see above are 10 days in the past
and 5 days into the future. Remember, the future days should only be used to
indicate the trend. So for SPX we had the last 10 days in up mode (green
boxes). However, what we now have is a reversal that occurred at the close on
Friday and extends as red for the week. If things work out and people are
interested I may expand this coverage to the other issues. Stay tuned.
Sunday, March 29’09:
NDX: 10:55 am SPX:
10:55 am AAPL: 10:55 am GLD: 10:55 am
Friday’s
results are now incorporated. The graphics are shifted. We can see all 4 issues
are green as we go into Monday. Assuming a relatively flat market, the trend is
up on Monday with red coming in on Monday afternoon. But the market won’t be
flat, so what actually happens will dictate what happens to the trend.
Thursday, March 26’09:
NDX: 10:45 pm SPX:
10:45 pm AAPL: 10:45 pm
GLD: 10:45 pm
It
is actually Friday morning. I forgot to post this last night. Today I am making
posts on Twitter.
The
graphics are shifted. Again, as I have been saying during the last few days,
the volatility is obvious. We seem to be in a pattern of green – red – green OR
red – green – red on a DAILY basis. Ouch. Tomorrow, I will make an effort to
post several times during the day – on Twitter. Stay tuned (and sign up).
NDX: 8:35 pm SPX:
8:35 pm AAPL: 8:35 pm
GLD: 8:35 pm
The
top 3 issues finished the day in green mode. Gold finished in red mode. Today I
tried posting a couple of messages during the day on Twitter. Once again I
suggest that you sign up – it takes 2 minutes. It is the equivalent to a
texting service on a phone.
Today
we had volatility show up again. Of late I have noticed that the model is
reversing itself several times a day. Where are the good old days when a trend
went for a number of days. Hopefully those days will
be back. From my perspective however, I plan to start trading intraday by
coupling the half hour model (shown here) with a 5 minute model. Later this
evening I will shift the graphics. Stay tuned.
Wednesday,
March 25’09:
NDX: 10:35 pm SPX:
10:35 pm AAPL: 10:35 pm
GLD: 10:35 pm
Volatility
continues. Today I used Twitter to send out a message at about 11 am to tell
the readers that I could see a reversal to the down side at lunch time. Twitter
is so simple to use – there is nothing to it. You don’t need to use your real
name. If you sign up, then you can see the messages I post (not to mention the
rest of the world if you so choose). For me it is a very convenient way of
transmitting messages. In the future I may abandon updating the graphics
throughout the day and instead post the results on Twitter. If you are not
signed up, take a couple of minutes to do so. It is in effect the equivalent of
‘texting’ on
the internet. Once you sign up and choose to follow me ‘engprof6’, then
anything I post will be accessible to you whenever you log in.
On
Tuesday evening I had Wed as being red – green – red for the day. In fact, the
day ending up being green – red – green. That’s the way things are. There is so
much uncertainty that you cannot predict ahead of time. The market has become
quite dynamic. However, as the day evolved, the model locked in to the
‘altered’ trend and predicted the reversal at lunch time about an hour before
it started. As for the close, again the model locked into the reversal. Stay
tuned and good luck.
NDX: 8:55 pm SPX:
8:55 pm AAPL: 8:55 pm
GLD: 8:55 pm
As
expected, the NDX, SPX and AAPL reversed this morning to the up side. Meanwhile
GLD behaves in the opposite fashion. We had red during the afternoon until the
last hour or so when we reversed back to green. This pattern of reversing
during the day one or more times seems to be gaining momentum. Such is life.
Later on I will shift the graphics. Stay tuned.
NDX: 8:15 am SPX:
8:15 am AAPL: 8:15 am GLD: 8:15 am
I
have updated the graphics and shifted them. They include Tuesday’s results.
What we are seeing is a fair degree of instability – volatility. We are up and
down intraday. The one showing the ‘most’ stability is GLD. As we start Wed all
3 top issues are red, but they are looking to reverse very quickly. If we look
at SPX we then see green for most of Wed and a part of Thursday. So there is
hope for continued up movement. Naturally, as actually data comes in these
colors are readjusted and can change. Stay tuned.
Monday, March 23’09:
NDX: 11:15 pm SPX:
11:15 pm AAPL: 11:15 pm
GLD: 11:15 pm
What
a day. It feels good. The first 3 issues are pointing up while gold is now
pointing down. I cannot shift the graphics this evening. I will do so on
Tuesday evening. Stay tuned and good luck.
Sunday, March 22’09:
NDX: 5:25 pm SPX:
5:25 pm AAPL: 5:25 pm
GLD:
5:25 pm
The
graphics are shifted. On another note, I am planning to redo the graphics to
show a ‘short term’ trend and a ‘long term’ trend. The short term trend would
have reversals during a day while the long term trend might have a reversal on
a weekly basis (or after several days). I am planning this because my interest
is in short term trading. Such a scheme is what I am currently tracking and it
does very well for short term trading. Stay tuned.
Friday, March 20’09:
NDX: 9:25 pm SPX:
9:25 pm AAPL: 9:25 pm
GLD:
9:25 pm
This
has been somewhat a difficult week. As we now look at next week we can see that
volatility and uncertainty will continue. As we start the week, NDX is pointing
down and SPX is pointing up. We have divergence. Meanwhile AAPL is uncertain –
it’s up and it’s down. Meanwhile GLD has green for Monday but then on Tuesday –
green comes into the picture. Good luck to all.
Friday, March 20’09:
NDX: 5:35 pm SPX:
5:35 pm AAPL: 5:35 pm
GLD:
5:35 pm
We
have just finished an interesting week. We had some up’s and we had some
down’s. As we started Friday, all was green. But, as the day progressed we had
some reversals. NDX reversed around 1 pm and so did AAPL. NDX remains red for
Monday but AAPL is wavering. It reversed back to the up side today at 4 pm and
then on Monday it is showing another patch of red. It is undecided. Meanwhile
SPX stayed as green for today and remains green for Monday. Gold also remains
green. What we are seeing is the units starting to disconnect. Wonder what this
means. Later on I will shift the data so that you can see 2 days into the
‘future’ window.
Thursday, March 19’09:
NDX: 10:55 pm SPX:
10:55 pm AAPL: 10:55 pm
GLD:
10:55 pm
The
graphics are shifted. You can now see that there is red in the future window
for the top 3 issues. The exception is GLD. It is solid red. Incidentally, a
‘green’ day does NOT mean that the issue must go up. The green simply indicates
the overall trend. There are down days in up trends and there are up days in
down trends. Come back soon. And good luck.
NDX: 9:35 pm SPX:
9:35 pm AAPL: 9:35 pm
GLD:
9:35 pm
The
overall trend remains up for all 4 issues. I have analyzed the closing data.
Later on this evening I will shift the graphics to reveal what the trend will
be up to the close on Monday. Stay tuned.
Wednesday,
March 18’09:
NDX: 10:25 pm SPX:
10:25 pm AAPL: 10:25 pm
GLD:
10:25 pm
I
have shifted the graphics. You can now see a lot of green for Thursday and
Friday. In fact there is zero red. So this afternoon’s move seems to have
changed the mood. Good luck to all and come back soon.
NDX: 8:15 pm SPX:
8:15 pm AAPL: 8:15 pm
GLD:
8:15 pm
It
looked like a quiet day, but then this afternoon there was a surge. Everything
shot up. The model had been down on the 3 lead issues when I analyzed at noon.
But then things started to turn around and by the time the rocket was lit, all
4 were pointing up. What a market. Stay tuned. Later I will shift the data.
NDX: 12:15 pm SPX:
12:15 pm AAPL: 12:15 pm GLD: 12:415 pm
As
of the 12 pm noon analysis the 3 issues (NDX, SPX and AAPL) are in down trends
while GLD has just reversed to the up side. As I write this at 12:15 pm the
market is making a nice move up but, until the model tells me otherwise this is
not ‘real’. Stay tuned – I will update later – around 2 pm or so. Good luck.
NDX: 10:40 am SPX:
10:40 am AAPL: 10:40 am GLD: 10:40 am
At
the 10:30 am analysis we have all 4 issues pointing down. The down draft this
morning has advanced the reversals. Note how gold is looking to reverse to the
up side at 12 pm today. Meanwhile, the other 3 are now in the red going into
Thursday. Stay tuned for more.
Tuesday, March 17’09:
NDX: 11:00 pm SPX:
11:00 pm AAPL: 11:00 pm
GLD: 11:00 pm
I
have shifted the graphics. As I said earlier this evening, there is a reversal
to the down side for all 4 issues on Wednesday morning. Come back soon and see
how things unfold.
NDX: 10:05 pm SPX:
10:05 pm AAPL: 10:05 pm
GLD: 10:05 pm
The
graphics now show the end of Tuesday. It was quite an ending to the day. Again
the volatility is showing and it’s fooling many (including myself). So at the
end of the day all 4 issues were pointing up – however, they are all now
looking to reverse to the down side on Wednesday morning. BUT until it happens,
the trend is at this moment – up. Later on this evening I will shift the
graphics. Stay tuned.
NDX: 12:55 pm SPX:
12:55 pm AAPL: 12:55 pm GLD: 12:55 pm
The
markets are volatile. The NDX and SPX and AAPL all reversed to the up side this
morning. Now we have AAPL already reversed back to the down side. And NDX and
SPX are about to follow. We have NDX looking at 1:30 pm and SPX looking at 2:30
pm. Meanwhile GLD went negative this morning but has now reversed to the up
side. We have a mixed up situation. Stay tuned.
Monday, March 16’09:
NDX: 10:25 pm SPX:
10:25 pm AAPL: 10:25 pm GLD: 10:25 pm
The
graphics are shifted. What we have for NDX, SPX and AAPL is a pattern of red, green
and red in the future window. For GLD it is the opposite. Now remember, these
are not forecasts – they are trends. And, as ‘actual’ data comes in, these
points in the future can change. If you look at the SPX you can see that there
is a reversal to the up side for 11 am on Tuesday. But if the SPX is up
tomorrow morning you can anticipate that the reversal will be speeded up, and
if SPX is down then the reversal to the up side will be delayed. It is ‘common
sense’. Stay tuned.
As
a final point I would like to thank those who have written and suggested that I
look at the 2X and 3X ETF’s as viable investment tools. I want you to know
that I have not ruled them out – thanks for your suggestions.
NDX: 5:55 pm SPX:
5:55 pm AAPL: 5:55 pm GLD: 5:55 pm
Interesting day.
We had NDX as red for the day and NDX was down. Meanwhile SPX started green but
at 1:00 pm it reversed to the downside. I post this result at that time. And at
1 pm AAPL also reversed to the down side. Meanwhile GLD went from being red to
green at 11:30 am today. Later on this evening I will shift the graphics so
that Wed will become visible. Stay tuned.
NDX: 1:50 pm SPX:
1:50 pm
I
do not have the opportunity to do a complete update. I have looked at NDX and
it reversed this morning. Meanwhile, SPX has just reversed at 1:00 pm today. As
for AAPL and GLD, I have not analyzed. Will update all after
the close. Stay tuned.
Saturday, March 14’09:
NDX: 8:50 pm SPX:
8:50 pm AAPL: 8:50 pm
GLD: 8:50 pm
Surprise!
I have done a flip-flop. I have gone back to the half hour analysis. There are
several reasons but for now I will not go into them. You will need to take it
at face value. As I’ve said on a number of occasions, my objective is to
develop a viable trading strategy that can be used to ‘win’ on a consistent
basis. I plan to convert $5K into 1 million in 2 years. I’ve said this before
and in the past I did not succeed, but I have not given up. And, I now feel
more confident than ever.
There
are 2 vehicles that I am planning to use. One is options and the other is
futures. I am focusing on both and will resume trading shortly. At this time my
preference is futures because they hold several key advantages. With regards to
futures, the analysis will be relatively quick (4 minute intervals). The
potential is large. But, it requires a good trading model. At this time I think
I have made enough progress that I will start trading index futures in April.
The back testing is looking good. In the meantime, I will present the graphics
based on the half hour model. I may also expand the predictions so that the
moves are not measured in days but in weeks. Stay tuned. Your comments are
always welcome. Let’s see how the model does this week. Good luck to all. We
may need it if some of the red holds.
Friday, March 13’09:
NDX: 10:10 pm SPX: 10:10 pm AAPL: 10:10 pm GLD: 10:10 pm
This
week was a strong up week. You can see the entire week in the graphics. What I
find interesting is that there was some red on Mon, Wed and Fri. So this was an
up week but there pockets of scepticism that created the red patches. Now as we
go into a new week we are faced with red. Let me back track a bit and simply
state that we are in a down trend. How long you ask? I don’t know. Let’s take
it one day at a time. Good luck. Later this weekend I will shift the graphics.
Stay tuned.
NDX: 12:20 pm () SPX: 12:20 pm () AAPL: 12:20 pm () GLD: 12:20 pm ()
As
was anticipated last evening, there have been reversals this morning. In fact,
all 4 issues are now pointing down. Hopefully, this down move will from a
modeling perspective be longer than a couple of slices. I hate those
‘fake-outs’. I’m sure you do too. Good luck and sty tuned.
Thursday, March 12’09:
NDX: 9:40 pm () SPX:
9:40 pm () AAPL: 9:40 pm () GLD: 9:40 pm ()
The
graphics are shifted. Take a look at SPX. Start with Monday. What we see is 2
slices of red sandwiched between green. And then on Wednesday we have two
slices of red with another slice of red on Thursday morning. This is basically
the same pattern for the NDX and AAPL. This made it a difficult week because of
the ‘sprinkling’ of these 2 instances of red. Normally, this does not happen
but given the volatility that we now have, it happened this week. I offer no
apologies. This is life – at least I think it is. Good luck.
As
a final point, I want you to know that for the NDX, it will reverse at 10 am if
it is below 1161 (it closed today at 1165). As for the SPX it will reverse at
10 am if it is below 745 (it closed today at 751). Meanwhile, AAPL reversed at
4 pm today.
NDX: 5:45 pm () SPX:
5:45 pm () AAPL: 5:45 pm () GLD: 5:45 pm ()
I
have added today’s data. I will shift the graphics later. We have 2 ‘past’ days
on the right. So what happened. We were taken for a
ride. The reversal that occurred on Wednesday was taken back this morning at 10
am. This happened for NDX, SPX and AAPL. And now at the close on Thursday we
have AAPL pointing down again. Meanwhile, NDX and SPX are not far behind. They
are looking to reverse once again to the own side at noon on Friday. This is a
difficult market. The volatility is high. Stay tuned.
Wednesday,
March 11’09:
NDX: 10:30 pm () SPX: 10:30 pm () AAPL: 10:30 pm () GLD:
10:30 pm ()
Today
we had NDX, SPX and AAPL (yes AAPL) reverse to the down side as had been
anticipated yesterday. GLD had reversed to the up side at the close on Tuesday.
I will not have the opportunity to shift the graphics this evening. I will do
it tomorrow night. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, March 10’09:
NDX: 8:45 pm (1089) SPX:
8:45 pm (708) AAPL: 8:45 pm
(86.4) GLD:
8:45 pm (87.6)
The
graphics are shifted. We can now see a fair amount of red in the future window
for NDX, SPX and AAPL. Meanwhile, gold is solid green. So, it looks like the up
trend will take a break. Does it mean that it will – maybe.
We are in an up trend and until it changes – the rest is speculation. At this
point given a ‘flat’ market, the reversal to the down side should occur at
lunch time on Wednesday. But that’s assuming a ‘flat’ market tomorrow morning.
What about if the market is up? The reversal will tend to be delayed. In fact
if the SPX moves up about 10 points throughout the day, the reversal moves to
Thursday. If the market is down Wed morning then the reversal will be
accelerated. Let’s say that the SPX has a really ‘bad’ first half hour and is
at 1089 or lower at 10 am, the SPX will set the reversal at 4 pm on Tuesday.
That is the worst case scenario. So, this is the way things work. Stay tuned.
NDX: 5:35 pm (1089) SPX:
5:35 pm (708) AAPL: 5:35 pm
(86.4) GLD:
5:35 pm (87.6)
This
was a nice day. With the 10 am data, the model spilled green into the 4 pm
slice of Monday and across the Tuesday slices. So ‘officially’ the reversal
occurred at 4 pm on Monday although in reality, the reversal would be taken to
be at 10 am today. Now when we look at Wednesday we see red in the future
window. What does this mean? If the market is flat the trend will reverse.
However, because of a request from a reader, I have gone a bit further to try
to put a value on the table that can be used to assess the state of affairs.
If
we look at the label below the date that starts this narrative, you can see a
black number in brackets. For NDX we have a value of 1089. This is the value
that was computed at the close. If you scroll down a bit you can see that this
value at 2 pm was 1084 for NDX. What does this value mean? It is the value that
will cause a reversal. Call it the pivot point, the point of resistance etc.. So if at 10 am the NDX is below 1089, the model will
conclude that the 4 pm data point of Tuesday was the reversal. You should note
that NDX closed at 1112 on Tuesday. What is also interesting is that the
resistance point is moving up with the index. It increased by 5 in the last 2
hours. And for the astute, you should note that at 12 pm on Wed the trend
should reverse if the market is ‘flat’. This means that the reversal point
could increase from 1089 to 1112 (a change of 23 points) with the addition of 2
data points (10 am and 12 pm).
Let’s
now consider the SPX. At 2 pm the SPX was at 711 and the reversal point was at
701. By the close SPX had risen to 720 and the reversal point had moved up to
708. This means that on Wednesday morning at 10 am a reversal to the down side
would be pinned on the 4 pm slice if the SPX is 708 or lower.
Finally,
you may wish to note that GLD reversed to the upside at 4:00 pm today
(Tues).
NDX: 2:15 pm (1084) SPX: 2:15 pm
(701) AAPL:
2:15 pm (85.8) GLD: 2:15
pm (88.5)
The
strong open this morning caused the model to spill green across the Tuesday
window and in fact it pushed the reversal to the 4 pm slice of Monday. But
given that we cannot go back in time, I will put the reversal at 10:00 am. You
can also see that the strong move as of 2 pm has now brought red into Wed and
Thursday. So it looks like we are in for a number of bumpy rides.
One
reader (‘R’) had several interesting comments. One I especially like and it is
to post threshold or ‘resistance’ values. This will help better gauge what is
required to cause a reversal. For example, the NDX last night was showing that
it needed to go up by 9 points by 10 am to cause the reversal. I agree with the
reader that this kind of information can be useful.
So
what I’ve done is I’ve computed what the issue should be at the next time of
analysis (in this case it is 4 pm today) that would cause the reversal to be
pinned at the 2 pm slice. Let’s consider SPX. At 2:00 pm it was 711. The model has computed that if SPX is at 701 or lower at the 4
pm analysis then the 2 pm data point will represent a ‘reversal’. These values
are shown as black in the heading under the date. These ‘resistance’ points should help all of
us understand a bit better the dynamics of the markets.
Now,
let’s assume that SPX does not move below the ‘701’ level, then there is no
reversal at 2 pm. But there may be at 4 pm etc.
After the close I will reassess the new level that is required to signal
a reversal. Stay Tuned. And good luck.
Monday, March 9’09:
NDX: 9:35 pm (ET)
SPX: 9:35 pm (ET)
AAPL: 9:35 pm (ET)
GLD: 9:35 pm (ET)
All
4 issues are pointing down. With regards to NDX, SPX and AAPL – they want to go
up. They have green showing (a few slices away). So there is light in this
short term tunnel. But times are tough – the markets are volatile. We say that
today. Look at AAPL it had 2 and one-hours of green in its up move – that
hurts. However, as I said there is green immediately ahead. Once upon a time I
used to say – Enjoy. Now all I can say is Survive. Good luck.
NDX: 7:45 pm (ET)
SPX: 7:45 pm (ET)
AAPL: 7:45 pm (ET)
GLD: 7:45 pm (ET)
What
a difference an hour can make. I posted at 12:40 pm today with the 12 noon
data. As I posted the page I noticed that the market level was lower than the
12 pm data and that the level would cause a reversal at 2 pm. I post a message
around 1 pm on Twitter telling readers that it was likely we were seeing a
reversal. Well, with the 2 pm data the model posted a reversal which it put on
the 12 pm data. Remember, the latest point can change with the introduction of
a new data point. So we had the 12 noon point change from green to red when the
2 pm point was entered. Anyway, that happened to all 3 issues that were
pointing up. So the latest up move was less than one day long. Kind of shows
how ‘bad’ things are. Later on I will shift the graphics.
As
a final comment, what happened today was that the red we had on Tuesday spilled
into Monday and triggered the reversal.
NDX: 12:40 pm (ET)
SPX: 12:40 pm (ET)
AAPL: 12:40 pm (ET)
GLD: 12:40 pm (ET)
Little
has changed from what I said on the weekend. Today we have the overall trend as
up for NDX, SPX and AAPL. On Tuesday, there may be some instability because of
the red that we can see. This may change as new data comes in at 2 and 4 pm.
The future window is constantly re-adjusted with the addition of new data. Come
back later to see how things are evolving. Good luck.
Saturday, March 7’09:
NDX: 2:00 pm (ET)
SPX: 2:00 pm (ET)
AAPL: 2:00 pm (ET)
GLD: 2:00 pm (ET)
On
Friday afternoon we had all 4 issues reverse. We had NDX, SPX and AAPL go green
while gold (GLD) went red. Even with all the turmoil, the model has been doing
well – ‘C’ may not agree but that is a separate issue. One point that seems to
bother him is the fact that slices in the future window can change color. As an
example, we have at this time (Fri close) SPX with red on Tuesday at noon until
Wed at 10 am. From what I gather some figure this should be fixed in stone. If
on Tuesday the model decides that the red is no longer warranted, I get ‘C’
telling me that I am altering the data. I know I am being too hard on ‘C’ – I
am using him as an example. But for all those who are following my postings, it
is important to note that slices in the future are subject to color change.
Moreover, the latest slice is also subject to change.
Let’s
consider SPX on Friday. The 2 pm slice was green and the 4 pm slice was green.
The most the model can do is change the last slice i.e. the 4 pm slice. The 2
pm slice is green and is now nailed down – it cannot be altered. Get the idea.
For
the last 10 days or so I have been posting the new 4 point model. I have also
simplified the graphics. So let’s see what signals I have posted for each issue
after the changeover:
NDX:
Sold
on Wed. Feb. 25 (2 pm) at 1167
Bought
on Tues. March 3 (12 pm) at 1075 (Gain
of 92)
Sold
on Thurs. March 5 (10 am) at 1100
(Gain of 25)
Bought
on Fri. March 6 (2 pm) at 1052 (Gain
of 48)
Total Gain: 165
SPX:
Sold
on Wed. Feb. 25 (2 pm) at 770
Bought
on Tues. March 3 (12 pm) at 693 (Gain
of 77)
Sold
on Thurs. March 5 (10 am) at 701 (Gain
of 8)
Bought
on Fri. March 6 (2 pm) at 672 (Gain of
29)
Total Gain: 114
AAPL:
Sold
on Wed. Feb. 25 (2 pm) at
$91.88
Bought
on Tues. March 3 (12 pm) at $88.77
(Gain of $3.11)
Sold
on Thurs. March 5 (10 am) at $91.19
(Gain of $2.42)
Bought
on Fri. March 6 (4 pm) at $85.30 (Gain
of $5.89)
Total Gain: $11.42
GLD:
Bought
on Thurs. Feb. 26 (2 pm) at
$92.41
Sold
on Fri. March 6 (2 pm) at $92.52 (Gain
of $0.11)
Total Gain: $0.11
So,
as you can see the model has been doing well. The model has made some nice
gains. With GLD, the model has held its own. Stay tuned and come back soon.
Next week I will reduce the size of this web page by chopping off most of the
postings. It will only date back to Feb 15. If you want to keep a copy before I
crop the file you are welcome to do so. Good luck.
Friday, March 6’09:
NDX: 10:30 pm (ET)
SPX: 10:30 pm (ET)
AAPL: 10:30 pm (ET)
GLD: 10:30 pm (ET)
I’m
sorry I could not update on Thursday or today. But, I’m back. I was called away
and did not have access. In the meantime, we had the NDX, SPX and AAPL reverse
first to the down side on Thursday morning and then on Friday afternoon they
all 3 reversed to the up side. So all 3 are now pointing up. With regards to
GLD it reversed on Friday afternoon to the down side. GLD had been positive for
a number of days but now it is red. Later on this week end I will shift the
graphics. I will shift Thursday and Friday from the right hand side to the left
hand side. That will create room for two new days. Stay tuned.
Thursday, March 5’09:
NDX: 1:30 pm (ET)
SPX: 1:30 pm (ET)
AAPL: 1:30 pm (ET)
GLD:
1:30 pm (ET)
The
data at 10 am caused the reversal to occur at 10 am. So we had NDX, SPX and
AAPL all reverse to the down side. Definitely a difficult
situation. When you look at Friday you can see another reversal. The
markets are shaky. They are unstable. Stay tuned.
NDX: 7:30 am (ET)
SPX: 7:30 am (ET)
AAPL: 7:30 am (ET) GLD: 7:30 am (ET)
Things
are not looking good this morning. I will be tied up for some time. Given the
sorry state of futures at 7:30 am, I looked at what may happen at 10 am to the
above graphics. For NDX if it is below 1099 at 10 am, there will be a reversal
at 10 am. For SPX the reversal point for 10 am is 700 and for AAPL it is 90.75.
So if the issues are below these critical levels at 10 am, the graphics at that
point in time will show red. Even if that happens there is a glimmer of green
for Friday and then it is back to red on Monday. Good luck.
Wednesday,
March 4’09:
NDX: 9:30 pm (ET)
SPX: 9:30 pm (ET)
AAPL: 9:30 pm (ET) GLD: 9:30 pm (ET)
You
can read the graphics yourself. It is a good learning exercise. Just kidding. What I want you to note is that we now see red
for SPX on Monday. As for NDX the red appears earlier. You will note that for
NDX I have colored 2 slices as yellow. That’s because we have red and then 2
slices of green and then red. Because there are only 2 slices of green that
does not justify a reversal – hence the yellow color (caution). The yellow may
become of source for concern or it may dissipate and blend in with the
neighboring color. You should also note
that the yellow or some of the red or some of the green in the future window –
i.e. on the right of the large arrow can change as ‘real’ data comes in. The
snapshot you see at this time shows that both AAPL and NDX may reverse Thursday
afternoon. But to nail it we need real time data (at 10 am, 12 pm etc..). At this point it is just conjecture. Good luck.
NDX: 5:40 pm (ET)
SPX: 5:40 pm (ET)
AAPL: 5:40 pm (ET) GLD: 5:40 pm (ET)
At
the close little had changed from the outlook of mid day. We can now see a divergence.
The NDX and AAPL have some instability for Thurs-Fri. In fact as you will see
later on this evening when I shift the graphics, both NDX and AAPL will be
showing even more red. And again after the shift you
will see some red even for SPX. So this up turn seems to be coming to an end –
the timing is still a bit uncertain. So stay tuned.
As
a final point, I want you to know that I have signed up with twitter (at
twitter.com). This is an interesting tool to share very short messages. My id
is ‘engprof6’. So if you are on twitter look me up.
Because of the ease with posting, I will post more often on twitter during the
day with ‘highlights’. Good luck.
NDX: 1:10 pm
(ET) SPX: 1:10 pm
(ET) AAPL: 1:10 pm
(ET) GLD: 1:10 pm (ET)
The
overall trend for all issues remains up. However, for NDX and AAPL we can now
see red on Thursday (tomorrow). So we are already starting to see some cracks
in this rally. Say it ain’t so. Let’s see where we
are at when the markets close.
On
another note, I have signed up on Twitter as engprof6. I would like to test
this avenue out. I will post some messages to test this out. If you are using
Twitter, can you hook up to me and lets give this a
whirl.
Tuesday, March 3’09:
NDX: 9:10 pm
(ET) SPX: 9:10 pm
(ET) AAPL: 9:10 pm
(ET) GLD: 9:10 pm
(ET)
The
graphics are shifted. You can now see Friday. There is some red starting to
appear. Is that significant? No idea. It depends on the markets evolve in the
next few days. The future is shown based on the assumption that the markets are
flat during that future sequence.
With
regards to the 4 issues – they are now all green. The reversal has taken hold
for NDX, SPX and AAPL. Stay tuned.
NDX: 5:45 pm
(ET) SPX: 5:45 pm
(ET) AAPL: 5:45 pm
(ET) GLD: 5:45 pm
(ET)
We
closed out the day as we were at lunch time. All four issues are pointing up.
Later on this evening I will shift the graphics and update the signals as to
when the reversals occurred. I am not sure I can say that we have a couple of
days of green coming up – enjoy because the way things are looking this is one
sick market. There is little life in it and little to enjoy but such is life.
We need to take the good with the bad. And one day things will improve – let’s
hope it is soon. Come back later for the update.
NDX: 12:20 pm
(ET) SPX: 12:20 pm
(ET) AAPL: 12:20 pm
(ET) GLD: 12:20 pm
(ET)
At
the 12 pm analysis we had the NDX, SPX and AAPL all reverse to the up side. The
NDX was at 1075.10, the SPX was at 692.85, and AAPL was at 88.77 at 12 noon.
The GLD was already pointing up. So we now have green in the future window for
the next few days for all 4 issues. Good luck to all. And come back soon.
Monday, March 2’09:
NDX: 8:40 pm
(ET) SPX: 8:40 pm
(ET) AAPL: 8:40 pm
(ET) GLD: 8:40 pm
(ET)
The
graphics are shifted. You can see that the 3 issues: NDX, SPX and AAPL are all
looking at Tuesday to go to the up side. We need some relief. Meanwhile, GLD is
looking at red on Wed. Good luck to all. Come back soon.
NDX: 5:45 pm
(ET) SPX: 5:45 pm
(ET) AAPL: 5:45 pm
(ET) GLD: 5:45 pm
(ET)
What
a day. I was tied up today and did not see much except at the close. Ouch. It
looks bad. This morning (10 am) the model had signalled a reversal for NDX but
with the 12 pm data point the direction was changed back. Remember the last or
if you like the latest data point is assigned a color that can change when the
next data point is input. This is the way the model operates. When I entered
the data at 10 am there was instability in that SPX and AAPL were remaining red
while NDX had squeaked by into green. Obviously that was not a ‘good’ decision.
But that’s the way it is.
Now
let’s focus on Tuesday. Things are looking better. We have SPX looking at 10 am
and NDX looking at 12 pm as points to reverse to the up side. Meanwhile, AAPL
is looking at 2 pm to reverse. So Tuesday should see all 3 issues in green
mode. As for GLD we are looking at Wednesday afternoon at this time to have it
reverse to the down side. You will note that I have updated the graphics but
have not yet shifted them. Will do so later this evening.
Stay tuned.
NDX: 10:15 am (ET)
SPX: 10:15 am (ET)
AAPL: 10:15 am (ET)
GLD: 10:15 am (ET)
The
‘new’ version of the model – actually it is simply a change in the frequency of
the data – is now what you are looking at. At the 10 am analysis, the NDX
reversed to the up side. The SPX is a bit behind. It is looking to reverse at
12 pm. Meanwhile, AAPL and GLD are looking at Wed morning. As for AAPL it is in
an ‘up move’ which we will call ‘turbulence’ within the primary move. Until that minor move takes over (or not), I will not show it.
Stay tuned.
Saturday, Feb. 28’09:
NDX: 5:15 pm
(ET) SPX: 5:15 pm
(ET) AAPL: 5:15 pm
(ET) GLD: 5:15 pm
(ET)
On
Friday, ‘C’ helped me realize that I am trying too hard. He was critical of
what I was doing. He suggested a ‘reality check’. He cast a negative light on
my work. This made me think. When I stood back and took a good look and
reviewed my past performance, I realized that I was more successful when I had
only 1 row and not 3 rows to clutter up the space and to confuse.
The
key issue is the frequency of the data to input into the model. For those who
are familiar with moving averages etc.. you know what I mean. The number of rows is an artefact. So
I have decided to terminate the current experiment of coupling 3 points and 1
point daily data. I am now going to use only one series – 4 points per day. The
times that I have chosen are 10 am, 12 pm, 2 pm and 4 pm. Since I only have one
row, there is no longer an issue of alignment and turbulence and ambiguity.
With the use of 2 rows this had become a point of stress for me.
However,
at this point I want it understood that the colors are used to indicate trends.
They should not be interpreted as to indicate the actual direction on a given
day. It is not correct to say that a string of 4 green days means a string of 4
up days. That is not consistent with statistical analysis. A string of the same
color simply indicates a period of time over which a trend dominates. Because
of the way the results are now configured, it is easier to read the graphics.
The information is clearer. So where are we now as we move into March ’09. Given the changes I’ve made, we need to re-assess each
issue.
Let’s
look at SPX and NDX. The windows with the past 4 days and the future 3 days are
identical. We can see that the model went negative Wednesday afternoon. You may
recall that the 1 point daily model was green for the last few days. I have
removed the 1 day model because it doesn’t have sufficient sensitivity for me
and some of the readers. You may also recall that the 3 point model was showing
the down trend. So now the 4 point model also shows it. The big change in my
strategy is to collapse the graphic to one row. Incidentally, both NDX and SPX
are looking to reverse to the up side on Monday morning (10 am).
Moving
on to AAPL, we find that its ‘past’ window is identical to NDX and SPX.
However, its future window has one extra day of red. It is looking to reverse
on Tuesday morning. Obviously, this is a projection. For those who do not
realize it, this projection is made assuming a flat price in the future window.
Naturally, as real price data is input, the projection may be adjusted. And
finally we have gold (GLD). It is now pointing up. It reversed to the up side
Thursday near the close. When we look at the future window we see that red
re-appears on Tuesday, March 3. You will note that GLD and SPX oppose each
other. What I’ve noticed is that GLD lags about 1 day behind the SPX. So gold
reacts to the market direction but, overall, it does so with a bit of a delay.
In
closing, I suspect I will get some comments. I welcome them – both good and
bad. They allow me to reflect. As I stated at the outset, the negative comments
from ‘C’ are in part responsible for the change I have made. Is the change an
improvement? I hope so BUT only time will tell. Stay tuned.
Friday, Feb. 27’09:
NDX: 1:55 pm
(ET) SPX: 1:55 pm
(ET) AAPL:
1:55 pm (ET) GLD:
1:55 pm (ET)
Little
has changed from last night. The trends remain as they were. One should note
that NDX is now moving closer to reversing to the up side after yesterday’s
surprise move down. One reader ‘C’ had some harsh words for me because of the
flip that NDX made yesterday. In fact I was accused of being a fraud. I will
address these issues this weekend. So ‘C’ get your
comments ready. Incidentally, this is an ‘experiment’ I am running. There is no
need to be fraudulent. I don’t know you and you don’t know me. I publish my
findings and you are free to read them or not. I want to do my best and I want
to do it ‘honestly’. So ‘C’ there is no fraud here – look somewhere else.
Thursday, Feb. 26’09:
NDX: 5:45 pm
(ET) SPX: 5:45 pm
(ET) AAPL: 5:45 pm
(ET) GLD: 5:45 pm
(ET)
The
above graphics have been updated. I was on the road today and could not provide
an update. Let’s look at what happened. Today’s data had a direct impact on
NDX. It generated a sell at 10:30 am today. With today’s data NDX was the only
issue of the 4 that changed status. And NDX can go back to up mode on Monday at
10:30 am. So this could be a relatively quick down trend for NDX. Meanwhile SPX
and AAPL remain in up trends even with today’s drop. As for gold, it is looking
to reverse on Tuesday at 10:30 am. So we have a mixed bag at this time. Someone
asked me what to make it. My answer is: The markets have become ‘chaotic’ and
‘irrational’. They are very sensitive and nervous. So much has been lost that
people are ‘afraid’ to lose any more and they react on a whim. Any way enough preaching. Let’s see where we will go from
here. My faith in the model is not swayed – I believe. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, Feb. 25’09:
NDX: 9:15 pm
(ET) SPX: 9:15 pm
(ET) AAPL: 9:15 pm
(ET) GLD: 9:15 pm
(ET)
I
have updated the upper row of NDX and SPX. Initially I had left out some
oscillatory motion in the future window. This small perturbation should be
included. It was simply an oversight on my part. It makes no difference to the
forecast that I presented earlier. For those who may not realize it, the upper
row of each graphic shows 3 slices (3 data points) for each day. These slices
represent the times: 10:30 am, 1:30 pm, and 4:00 pm. The bottom row contains
only one data point per day. Good luck.
NDX: 6:15 pm
(ET) SPX: 6:15 pm
(ET) AAPL: 6:15 pm
(ET) GLD: 6:15 pm
(ET)
Today’s
decline did little to rattle the model. We continue to be in up mode for NDX,
SPX and AAPL. There is no reversal that is visible for the next four days. With
regards to gold (GLD), the trend remains red, however,
we now have a reversal that has appeared for Tuesday March 3. Stay tuned and
come back soon.
NDX: 12:40 pm
(ET) SPX: 12:40 pm
(ET) AAPL: 12:40 pm
(ET) GLD: 12:40 pm
(ET)
As
I write this at mid day (Wed) the Dow is down 150 points. However, the model
has not changed from last night. We have NDX, SPX and AAPL pointing up and gold
(GLD) pointing down. There will be ups and downs. It is important however to
keep focused. Let’s see in a day or two whether this was a ‘wise’ decision to
remain green. I trust the model. I will let it speak for itself. Stay tuned. As
usual it promises to be exciting in these challenging times.
Tuesday, Feb. 24’09:
NDX: 9:10 pm
(ET) SPX: 9:10 pm
(ET) AAPL: 9:10 pm
(ET) GLD: 9:10 pm
(ET)
As
we had anticipated the 3 issues that yesterday were pink, today all became
green at 10:30 am. So NDX, SPX and AAPL are now in up trends. GLD remains in a
down trend. What else can I say. I am pleased with the
model’s performance. I want to thank all those who have written me. The vast
majority voiced positive comments. I am thrilled. This is an exciting time.
Stay tuned. Come back soon. And good luck. If you have suggestions that I
should be considering – don’t hesitate to let me know at engpro6@hotmail.com.
NDX: 12:20 pm
(ET) SPX: 12:20 pm
(ET) AAPL: 12:20 pm
(ET) GLD: 12:20 pm
(ET)
At
12 noon we have the SPX reversed to the up side. This occurred as anticipated
at 10:30 am today. As for the NDX and AAPL they too will most probably show as
reversed at 10:30 am. As things stand, if this was the close of the market
(i.e. 4 pm) then AAPL and NDX would be green as of 10:30 am slice. But it is
not the end and who knows if these prices will hold. However, given the
reversal of SPX and given the upcoming green in the bottom row, going to the up
side would appear to be a valid decision. By the end of the day I expect to
have 3 issues as green and GLD as red. Stay tuned and Good Luck.
Monday, Feb. 23’09:
NDX: 8:10 pm
(ET) SPX: 8:10 pm
(ET) AAPL: 8:10 pm
(ET) GLD: 8:10 pm
(ET)
Let’s
look at the 4 issues after today’s melt down. The fact that they were all
pointing down was a ‘good’ start to the week. So what about
Tuesday. Let’s start with SPX. It is looking to reverse to the up side
Tuesday morning at 10:30 am. And then we have NDX and AAPL. They are looking at
Wednesday morning to reverse. However, in assessing the data I found that for
NDX if it closes above 1133 on Tuesday, then the Tuesday slice will be green.
For AAPL the price at the close should be above $87.70. I would dare to say
that if at 1:30 pm these 2 issues are at these levels or more, there will be a
buy at 1:30 pm on Tuesday.
And
finally for GLD, it is in a down trend until further notice. Stay tuned and
good luck.
NDX: 11:50 am (ET)
SPX: 11:50 am (ET)
AAPL: 11:50 am (ET)
GLD: 11:50 am (ET)
Little
has changed from the weekend. The reversal to the up side for NDX, SPX and AAPL
should happen Tuesday morning. I have updated the 3 point model (10:30 am, 1:30
pm, and 4:00 pm) with the 10:30 am data point. What we will need to see is what
effect the closing values will have on the 1 point model (lower row) once we
add in today’s closing price. It promises to be exciting. One last point to
make is not to jump the gun. This is one of my most serious problems. I shall
overcome it and I hope you will too. Wait for the signal. You will win in the
end. Stay tuned.
Sunday, Feb. 22’09:
NDX: 10:30 am (ET)
SPX: 10:30 am (ET)
AAPL: 10:30 am (ET)
GLD: 10:30 am (ET)
I
have expanded the list to 4 issues. We had NDX and SPX and now I’ve added AAPL
and the gold ETF – GLD. When we look at NDX and SPX we see that they are
pointing down but are about to reverse to the up side. AAPL is following NDX
and it too should reverse on Tuesday. These 3 issues went red on Feb 9/10. All
3 can actually reverse on Monday because the upper row is already green as we
go into Monday. The bottom row will be green at the close on Monday if SPX is
above 772 and NDX is above 1178 or AAPL is above 92.50. I’ve put this in just
to give you some insight. In fact, one can readily see that buying on Monday
(assuming the issues are not moving down) is a good idea. As a result of this
and because of a suggestion from a reader, I am showing the direction in
‘pink’. The use of red on the verge of a transition is overkill.
So
what about gold? As you are aware, gold tends to move opposite the market or so
it is believed. What does the model say. GLD became a
buy on Feb 10 just when the other issues were becoming ‘sells’. And now – on
Friday gold became a sell. This is denoted in the graphic as a sell at 10:30 am
at a price of $97.58. Now, GLD’s future window is all
red. And to balance things off the other issues will go to the up side. So we
have a very interesting situation that is unfolding. Stay tuned and good luck.
As
a final point I want to thank ‘Trev’, ‘Barry’, and
‘Craig’ who have helped me move in this new direction. Thanks fellows.
Saturday, Feb. 21’09:
NDX: 9:00 pm (ET) SPX: 9:00 pm
(ET) AAPL: 9:00 pm (ET)
Surprise. I have introduced AAPL to
the graphics. I know some are happy and I
also know some are not. You can see from the graphic for AAPL that it is
similar to NDX and SPX. Before I continue that discussion you should also note
that I now show when the move started and at what level. I also post when the
reversal is looking to occur which you can also see on
the barometer. So for SPX we had a sell on Monday Feb 9 at 1:30 pm when SPX was
at 871.1 – on Friday SPX closed about 100 points lower.
My
next point is in response to ‘Barry’ who ‘dared’ me to post the results for
something ‘different’. I thought about it for a few minutes and decided on the
gold ETF. It trades as GLD. So won’t it be something to see how gold is trading
at this time. I have compiled the graphic and it is something to check out. I
will post it on Sunday. So, as of tomorrow I will be following: NDX, SPX, AAPL
and GLD. Stay tuned and come back soon.
Saturday, Feb. 21’09:
NDX: 12:35 pm (ET) SPX: 12:35 pm
(ET)
I
have switched over the graphics to the new combination of models. Before going
any further, you should note that the generic model has not changed. What I
have changed is the frequency of the data. Before, I had 13 data points in one
day – that was the half hour model and it was coupled with the 3 point (10:30
am, 1:30 pm and 4:00 pm) daily model. I have now retired the half hour model
and replaced it with a 1 point daily model ( 4:00 pm).
What you now see in the graphics is the 1 point daily model on the lower row
and the 3 point daily model on the upper row. The row at the top of the graphic
is the barometer which is formed by combining the 2 models. When the same color
is aligned in the lower 2 rows, that causes the
barometer to take up that color (i.e. trend).
I
will still continue to ‘run’ the half hour model but I will only use it to fine
tune the entry and exit points for a move. It should be noted that I have not
removed the half hour model because it was not accurate. On the contrary, it
was too sensitive. I want less moves – I want to reduce the sensitivity. And I
gather that many of you feel the same way. Incidentally, if you look at this
past week you see that both indices were in down trends – which of course we
now know too well that they were.
The
other advantage that we have is that we can see more of the past and more of
the future. That helps the planning process.
As
I close this blog I want you to know that because of the change I am making I
will have more time available. Thus, I am seriously contemplating adding one
more issue. Guess which one. The name of the company is that of a common fruit.
I bet you know. I should have it posted this weekend. Stay tuned. And let me
know what you think.
Friday, Feb. 20’09:
NDX: 6:15 pm (ET) SPX: 6:15 pm
(ET)
This
is the last time that I will post the top 2 graphics that include the half hour
model. I am putting that in storage and will now focus on the 3 point and 1
point daily models to generate the overall trend. I think that this will add
more stability to the predictions. On Saturday I will make the changeover complete. Stay tuned.
NDX: 12:45 pm (ET) SPX: 12:45 pm
(ET)
The
data has been updated to include the 12:30 pm data points. The first 2 graphics
show the NDX and SPX in up trends. This is based on the half hour model coupled
with the 3 point daily model. There is also a third graphic. It is for the SPX
and it shows the overall trend as down but with a reversal to the upside on
Monday morning. This graphic is based on the 3 point daily model (10:30 am,
1:30 pm and 4:00 pm) and the 1 point model (4:00 pm). My intention is to switch
to this graphic for both issues this weekend. As I stated yesterday I have
become frustrated with the half hour model and so I now wish to drop it. I also
want to reduce the number of moves. This will do it. Stay tuned and don’t let
the market get you down. We will do well together in the future.
Thursday, Feb. 19’09:
NDX: 11:15 pm (ET) SPX: 11:15 pm
(ET)
The
trend remains up. That’s what I have been saying since 10:30 am Wednesday. Let
me review what I have been doing for the past few months. I have coupled half
hour data and 3 points (10:30 am, 1:30 pm and 4:00 pm) data to generate the
graphics. Since the end of 2008, I have also been running the model using 1
point (the closing price) for each day. Today, with the Dow below 7500 (and the
graphic pointing up –ouch) I have finally decided to produce graphics for the
coupling of the 3 points and 1 point daily models. I have become disillusioned
with the half hour data. It does one more harm than
good – at least that’s what I’ve experienced. So I want to get away from it. I
also want moves that are a bit longer – with less trading.
To
that end you will see above a new graphical result for the S&P 500. You can
see 3 rows: the overall barometer, the 3 points daily model and the 1 point
daily model. Now you will also see more data. I am displaying the past 5 days
along with the next 4 future days. That gives a bigger view of what is going
on. So what does the graphic say for the current situation.
You can see that the last 5 days had the trend as red. In fact if we could see
Wed Feb 11 you would recognize that it was the time the trend reversed to the
down side. The down trend continues into Friday and then reverses to the up
side on Monday.
From
my perspective, I am looking for a system that can be traded profitably and
consistently by purchasing calls or puts. My success has been marginal to date.
One of the reasons I believe has been my focus on the half hour data. It has
distracted me and it has caused me to make a number of unwarranted trades. Anyway, enough said. On the weekend I will complete the
shifting of the data to this new combination.
Your
comments would be greatly appreciated (engprof6@hotmail.com).
NDX: 6:15 pm (ET) SPX: 6:15 pm
(ET)
What
a day. When I reread what I wrote at 1:45 pm today, I am disappointed. I
thought the market would close up but instead it was down quite a bunch. Let’s
face it – I was wrong. Yes, you see it right. I goofed. BUT the move is not yet
finished although you can now see red on the barometer for the start on Friday.
That, of course can still be changed if there is some positive at the start of
the day, but that’s just speculation. Stay tuned later when you will be able to
see all of Friday.
NDX: 1:45 pm (ET) SPX: 1:45 pm
(ET)
The
overall trend remains up. And now the afternoon is also looking good. We have green
in the daily model and it’s being reinforced by green in the half hour model.
This is to be viewed as a reinforcement of the up move. But I know that if
nothing happens this afternoon or God forbid the move is a down one I will be
scolded that you can’t model the market etc…
From my perspective I would readily state that the indices will move up
this afternoon. However, there is always the outside chance that the model is
wrong. What I have learned based on experience is that you should not bet on it
being wrong. As I write this the Dow is down 30 points – let’s see where it
closes today.
NDX: 11:10 am (ET) SPX: 11:10 am (ET)
The
up trend continues. The barometer became green at 10:30 am on Wednesday and it
continues that way for Thursday. I think as a first step those that are reading
this page should focus on the barometer and leave along the bottom 2 rows. They
are for improving ones understanding of how things work and most importantly
for generating the barometer. Remember, the barometer is arrived at by
combining the 2 bottom rows. Stay tuned for updates.
Wednesday, Feb. 18’09:
NDX: 8:25 pm (ET) SPX: 8:25 pm
(ET)
The
data is shifted. Tomorrow (Thursday) looks better. SPX is all green while NDX
is mostly green. This week has been difficult especially because of Tuesday’s
steep drop. Then we had today when the market went up down up down… And in all
this, the model is doing very well. A bit of tongue in cheek.
I realize that ‘Craig’ may not agree. Let me know if you happen to read this.
Good luck to all.
NDX: 5:35 pm (ET) SPX: 5:35 pm
(ET)
At
the end of the day we maintain the up trend as shown on the barometer. There is
a divergence (at the end of the day) between the NDX and the SPX on the upper
row (half hour model). You will note
that I have updated the targets for this move. The SPX has a target to the up
side of 828. The NDX has a target of 1238. Later on, I will shift the data on
the graphics. Stay tuned.
NDX: 1:45 pm (ET) SPX: 1:45 pm
(ET)
At
the 1:30 pm analysis we have the upper row showing red as of 1:00 pm. The rest
of the afternoon has the overall trend remaining as green but there is also a
counteracting force in the upper row (red). This will tend to restrain
increases in the NDX and SPX until Thursday morning. I do however want to point
out that there are 3 rows on a graphic. The importance is in the following
order: 1) barometer, 2) ‘daily’ model, 3) ‘half-hour’ model. You should keep
this in mind. So when we look at Wednesday afternoon, we should view it as an
up trend with some turbulence that will tend to restrain its move. Stay tuned
for updates and good luck.
NDX: 10:50 am (ET) SPX: 10:50 am (ET)
The
situation is like it was last night. The arrows are now pointing up and green.
We are in an up trend but it is precarious because of the red in the upper row
this afternoon. We have instability which should resolve itself to the up side,
but a bit more time is required to clarify the picture. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, Feb. 17’09:
NDX: 8:50 pm (ET) SPX: 8:50 pm
(ET)
Tomorrow
morning (Wed) we should see a reversal to the up side. If things happen as they
are depicted in the above graphics we will go into up mode for the rest of the
week. And if that happens then the targets for the 2 indices will be as shown
on the graphics. For example, we would be looking for NDX to hit 1245. I want
to stress that this projection is simply based on an average change. So take it
with a grain of salt.
On
the weekend ‘Craig’ wrote to protest that the half hour model was off the mark.
While I agree that the half hour model has to be viewed in the context of the
whole picture, I want you to be aware that it can be a useful tool. Take today
for instance. Even though we closed at the low of the day, the half hour model
had gone green at noon. Was that a mistake – NO – because the overall trend was down. So
an up move during the afternoon would be moderated by the down trend. And
that’s what we got. However, the down trend stabilized and the market was flat.
Sure we didn’t go up but we didn’t really go down much. Such is life. Come back
on Wednesday to see where we are going. Good luck.
NDX: 5:50 pm (ET) SPX: 5:50 pm
(ET)
There
is little change from my post at 12:20 pm today. This afternoon the green in
the upper row moderated the fall of the market. Most of the drop took place by
noon. The rest of the day was spent going sideways. So what about Wednesday? In
the morning we can see a reversal to the upside for both the NDX and SPX. We
say this at noon today and we held the same view at the close. The up trend
should continue for the rest of the week. Later on I will shift the data so
that you can see all of Wednesday. Stay tuned.
NDX: 12:20 pm (ET) SPX: 12:20 pm
(ET)
What
I wrote last night summarizes what has happened. We went from a small perturbation
to a significant disturbance that is consuming all of Tuesday. There is relief
at 10:30 am Wednesday morning. We can see the barometer turning green based on
the current outlook. Another piece of ‘good’ news is that the half hour model
has gone green at 12 noon today. So we may wish to interpret that it will lead
the way up for the overall trend. I certainly hope so. As it stands I would be
a buyer at this time with the NDX at 1188 and the SPX at 792. Good luck. And
stay tuned.
Monday, Feb.
16’09:
NDX: 10:00 pm (ET) SPX: 10:00 pm
(ET)
This
is a difficult situation. On Saturday I wrote that there is a perturbation on
Tuesday. Well guess what. In looking at the futures this evening this is now
manifesting itself as a ‘one day reversal’. Let me focus on the NDX to
illustrate. It is a perturbation if the NDX at 10:30 am on Tuesday is greater
than 1218. If it is less, then the model will create a reversal to the down
side that dates back to the close on Friday. The good news is that from this
vantage point the reversal would be one day in length. Will it be an ‘official’
reversal or simply a perturbation. I don’t have a
clue. For the SPX the critical point is 816. Above 816, the move is a
perturbation. Below 816 at 10:30 am it is a reversal to the down side.
Incidentally, as I write this the futures for the SPX is at 807. And the NDX is
at 1208. So we have a long way to go to get out of this situation. Stay tuned.